Deloitte’s 2023 back-to-school survey found that spending for K-12 students is expected to decrease 10 percent to $597 per student. Deloitte also found that after 18 months of inflation, higher prices weigh on K-12 families preparing for the upcoming school year. 

In addition to a 23.7 percent increase in the cost of school supplies in the past two years (per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index), 3-in-10 (31 percent) of surveyed parents said their households are in worse financial shape in 2023 than last year, and half (51 percent) expected the economy to weaken in the next six months.

Parents rein in spending to focus on the necessities
Deloitte said in the study, “Uneasiness about the economy is creating price sensitivity and causing some parents to reassess how they will approach back-to-school shopping. Based on respondents’ intentions, spending is expected to decline to $31.2 billion this year.”

Despite the spending shift, the overall market remains above pre-pandemic levels, increasing 12.2 percent since 2019.

Key findings from the survey include:

  • Among K-12 parents, 34 percent are postponing non-essential back-to-school purchases, up from 31 percent in 2022;
  • Parents are prioritizing school supplies while pulling back on technology and clothing. Spending on school supplies is expected to increase 20 percent year-over-year to $7.1 billion. Parents plan to reduce spending on apparel by 14 percent year-over-year;
  • Technology spending will decline by 13 percent as many parents purchased tech supplies during the pandemic to meet virtual or hybrid learning requirements; however, technology spending is higher than in 2019, indicating the potential importance of the category for the industry;
  • Over two-thirds of parents (68 percent) expect to spend the same or less on back-to-school year-over-year;
  • Inflation is why some parents plan to spend less on back-to-school and why others plan to spend more. Among parents spending less, 51 percent attribute it to reduced disposable income (up from 45 percent in 2022), while 75 percent of those spending more point to increased prices (up from 60 percent in 2022);
  • Most parents surveyed plan to pay for purchases with cash this year; more than three-quarters (77 percent) plan to use debit cards and/or cash for their back-to-school purchases (up from 72 percent in 2022).

“With budgets strained this season, continued high prices could dampen the excitement of the back-to-school season for many families. Consumers will likely prioritize where they spend money as they look to replenish their savings accounts and spend on experiences, such as summer vacations, over goods. Parents are likely to be strategic about their spending to help ensure children are set up for success at the start of the school year by renewing school supplies but perhaps holding off on new clothing until needed. It’s not all bad news for retailers with many parents willing to splurge on certain items to treat their children, which may provide an opportunity for retailers,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte, LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader.

Financial fatigue shapes shopping behaviors
Back-to-school shopping will likely focus on finding ways to economize, including researching the best deals, shopping earlier and getting items (and possibly returning them) in the most affordable manner.

  • Some parents plan to get an early start on back-to-school shopping, with 59 percent of spending expected to happen by the end of July, up from 53 percent in 2022; 35 percent of parents believe better deals will happen earlier in the season versus 26 percent who believe they will occur later;
  • Parents overwhelmingly cited mass merchants (80 percent) as their most preferred retail format, followed by online retailers (60 percent) and off-price retailers and dollar stores (both at 33 percent). Forty-six percent of parents plan to spend most of their budget with mass merchants;
  • Only 34 percent of respondents said they often find lower prices online. As a result, 74 percent said they plan to shop in-store versus 56 percent who plan to shop online for most back-to-school items;
  • In-store shopping is preferred for traditional categories, while those shopping for technology primarily shop online;
  • Two in ten parents were undecided about purchasing back-to-school items in-store or online, representing a $6.3 billion opportunity for retailers;
  • Among online shoppers, 88 percent said they are willing to meet a minimum order value to receive free shipping. On average, parents would spend $32 on a minimum order value for free shipping. Six in ten (59 percent) would restrict their shopping to retailers with free returns, and 68 percent prefer returning in-store to avoid paying return fees.
  • The percentage of parents planning to buy sustainable back-to-school products is down from 50 percent in 2022 to 35 percent this year, although slightly higher among Millennials at 38 percent. Nearly half (47 percent) of those who would not purchase sustainable products said they are not affordable; however, sustainable back-to-school shoppers spend 36 percent more than shoppers;
  • Parents are willing to pay more for an item if their child convinced them to splurge on clothing (57 percent) and tech products (56 percent);
  • 49 percent of parents said they would research online before purchasing back-to-school products in-store, and 55 percent would research a retailer’s return policy before buying.

Digital technologies may not make the grade
Social media’s relevance in the back-to-school shopping experience is waning as K-12 parents cite that they use channels to economize. At the same time, some parents reported that smartphones negatively impact their kids and question the use of AI for schoolwork.

  • Only 21 percent of parents surveyed plan to leverage social platforms for shopping this year, compared to 35 percent in 2022. Further, 61 percent of those who use social media do so to find ways to economize their back-to-school spend;
  • Nearly half of K-12 parents (45 percent) are concerned about their child’s mental health, with more than one-third (36 percent) indicating that smartphones have complicated their children’s lives; and
  • The adoption of generative AI for schoolwork is nascent with 15 percent of K-12 parents saying their child uses the technology in their schoolwork; however, only 26 percent of parents said it is a positive tool for academic performance and overall learning experiences.

“During the pandemic, the pull forward in back-to-school spending was to overcome concerns around stock-outs, but this year we see consumers planning to economize throughout the back-to-school shopping journey. This cost consciousness is causing them to shop earlier, shop in-store to find the best price and prioritize what they’ll purchase to start school. We expect a potentially strong season for brick-and-mortar, particularly among mass merchants who deliver a one-stop shopping experience,” said Brian McCarthy, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP.

Deloitte’s back-to-school survey was conducted online using an independent research panel between May 26 and June 1, 2023, and surveyed 1,212 parents with at least one child attending school in grades K-12 this fall. To read the full survey, go here.