The Conference Board (TCB) is reporting its Consumer Confidence Index improved by 2.0 points to 97.2 in July (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by 2.2 points), driven by consumers still having a positive, but more moderate view in July of their current economic situation, of the current jobs market. Notably, 18.9 percent of consumers indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5 percent in January; however, they also expressed a more positive expectation of future, or short-term, job growth. Overall, consumers’ short-term outlook remained negative, but the sentiment also moderated from the prior month.

The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, declined 1.5 points to 131.5 points in TCB’s latest report.

The Expectations Index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 4.5 points to 74.4 points in July. Still, for the sixth consecutive month, expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025.

“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at TCB. “In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence. All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed. They were a tad more positive about current business conditions in July than in June. However, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021.”

July’s modest gain in confidence was driven by consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups except those earning the least (with household annual income below $15k). By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Republican consumers in July and remained stable for Democrats and Independents.

“Consumers’ write-in responses showed that tariffs remained top-of-mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices. In addition, references to high prices and inflation rose in July, even though consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8 percent, down from 5.9percent in June and a peak of 7 percent in April,” Guichard noted. “A number of survey respondents mentioned the recent budget reconciliation legislation passed by Congress (referring to it as the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’), with some consumers praising its potential positive economic impact and others expressing concerns.”

Despite some mention of the BBB, its implications were relatively low among the themes that consumers were focused on in July, according to TCB.

In July, consumers’ outlook on stock prices continued to recover from the 16-month low reached in April, with 47.9 percent expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, up from 37.6 percent three months prior. The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise declined to 53.0 percent from 57.1 percent in June, and more consumers expected interest rates to fall (21.2 percent vs 18.4 percent in June).

Guichard said a special question asking consumers about the direction of various interest rates suggested that they largely believe mortgage rates, auto loan rates and credit card rates were more likely to rise than other types of interest rates. Importantly, consumers anticipated credit card rates to rise the most.

Current and Future Family’s Financial Situation
Consumer views of their Current and Future Family’s Financial Situation remained solid but deteriorated somewhat in July. The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months declined slightly in July but remained above the levels seen in 2024. These measures are not included in the calculation of the Consumer Confidence Index.

Purchasing plans for cars and homes declined in July but remained stable on a six-month moving average basis. Consumers’ plans for purchasing big-ticket items were reported to be mixed, especially for appliances, while plans to buy most electronic goods increased slightly.

Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services weakened for a second consecutive month, with declines across nearly all service categories. Dining out remained the top choice among spending intentions in services. However, dining out was also one of the categories seeing the largest decline in spending intentions in July, along with transportation and lodging related to personal travel. Consistent with these findings, vacation intentions were also down overall in the month. A slightly higher proportion of consumers planned to travel abroad, while intentions to travel in the U.S. declined.

Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were slightly more positive in July.

  • 20.1 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 20.5 percent in June.
  • Only 14.3 percent said business conditions were “bad,” down from 15.0 percent.

Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled somewhat in July.

  • 30.2 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 29.4 percent in June.
  • However, 18.9 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 17.2 percent in June.

Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers were less pessimistic about future business conditions in July.

  • 18.4 percent of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 17.1 percent in June.
  • 23.3 percent expected business conditions to worsen, down from 24.8 percent in June.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less negative in July.

  • 17.5 percent of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 15.9 percent in June.
  • 25.4 percent anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 25.7 percent in June.

Consumers’ outlook for their income prospects was more positive in July.

  • 18.2 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase, up from 17.6 percent in June.
  • 12.0 percent expected their income to decrease, down from 12.9 percent in June.

Family Finances and Recession Risk

  • Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation ticked lower but remained solid in July.
  • Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Expected Financial Situation remained relatively strong.
  • Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months declined.

*The TCB monthly Consumer Confidence Index is based on an online sample and is conducted by Toluna on behalf of The Conference Board. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 20, 2025.