Retail sales showed moderate growth in June and posted the biggest year-over-over increase in nearly a year amid a still-solid economy and near-zero inflation for retail goods, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Consumers are being thoughtful about their spending, prioritizing non-discretionary purchases as they continue to face high interest rates and lingering inflation,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Inflation has dropped to nearly zero for goods but remains persistent with services, and solid economic fundamentals are helping consumers make ends meet. Month-over-month sales growth was moderate in June, and year-over-year gains for total retail sales were the largest we’ve seen since last fall.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas, were up 0.47 percent seasonally-adjusted, month-over-month (MoM), and up 3.42 percent unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) in June, according to the Retail Monitor. That compares with increases of 1.35 percent MoM and 3.03 percent YoY in May.
According to the NRF, the Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales, excluding restaurants, automobiles and gas, was up 0.3 percent MoM in June and 3.07 percent YoY. That compared with increases of 1.2 percent MoM and 2.88 percent YoY in May.
Total retail sales were up 2.39 percent YoY for the first six months of the year and core sales were up 2.62 percent. The YoY gain for total sales was the largest since 4.24 percent last November and the YoY gain for core sales was the largest since 3.24 percent in January 2024.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, NRF asserts that the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
June sales were up in five out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, general merchandise stores, clothing and accessory stores. Sales were up in four categories on a monthly basis.
Specifics from key sectors include:
- Online and other non-store sales were up 1.78 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted and up 23.08 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and bookstores were up 0.68 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted but down 0.52 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.11 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted but up 5.35 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.02 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted and down 3.24 percent YoY unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were up 0.61 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted and up 5.79 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.04 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted but up 4.63 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.01 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted and up 4.31 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.62 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted and down 3.26 percent YoY unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.8 percent MoM seasonally-adjusted and down 3.46 percent YoY unadjusted.
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