The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that retail sales continued to grow in May despite consumers slowing stocking of goods ahead of tariffs, according to data compiled in the May 2025 Edition of the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
“The data for May indicates that the pull-forward in consumer demand ahead of tariffs is likely dissipating,” observed NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “While momentum remains, the nature of consumer spending is shifting as economic uncertainty increases. Consumer fundamentals haven’t been damaged yet, and a slowing-but-still-growing job market is supporting household priorities ahead of any meaningful price increases in the coming months.”
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor estimated that Total Retail Sales, which excludes autos and gas, were up 0.49 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month (m/m) and up 4.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y) in May, compared with increases of 0.72 percent m/m and 6.8 percent y/y in April.
SGB Media rounds all variance percentages under 1 percent to the closest one-hundredth of a percent and any variances 1 percent or higher to the nearest one-tenth of a percent.
The CNBC/NRF report’s calculation of Core Retail Sales, excluding restaurants, auto dealers and gas stations, was up 0.23 percent m/m in May and up 4.2 percent y/y, compared with increases of 0.9 percent m/m and 7.1 percent y/y in April and March 2025 increases of 0.40 percent m/m and an increase of 5.1 percent y/y.
Total Retail Sales were up 5.0 percent y/y for the five-month year-to-date period (YTD), and Core Retail Sales were up 5.2 percent for the YTD period.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, which tabulates its report results without the need for monthly or annual revisions.
The NRF reported that May sales increased in seven out of nine categories on a year-over-year basis, led by digital products (E-Commerce), which includes Sporting Goods stores and General Merchandise stores. Additionally, sales rose in six categories on a month-over-month basis.
Growth in the Clothing, Footwear and Accessories Stores sector decelerated from the April trend, while the sector that includes Sporting Goods stores saw growth in May decelerate from April but still posted an 8.2 percent increase y/y unadjusted after a strong 9.2 percent y/y gain in April. E-commerce (Digital Products) accelerated from the very strong April trend.
Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales, Unadjusted
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report for May 2025, can be downloaded here.
Image courtesy Zara, Data/Chart courtesy CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor
