comScore Networks, in its latest forecast of online consumer spending for the 2004 holiday season, estimates that consumer spending on non-travel goods at U.S. Web sites will exceed $15 billion during the November through December holiday season, representing growth of approximately 23% to 26% over the 2003 season. comScore also expects that total quarterly non-travel spending will cross the $20 billion threshold for the first time in Q4 2004.
Non-Travel Online Consumer Spending
Excludes Auctions and Large Corporate Purchases
Source: comScore Networks
2003 2004 Percentage
(in billions) (in billions) Change
Year-to-date (through
Oct 17) $38.7 $48.2 25%
Holiday Season
(November/December) $12.3 $15.1-15.5* 23-26%*
Q4 2004 $16.7 $20.7-21.1* 24-26%*
Full Year $52.9 $65.8-66.2* 25%*
*comScore Networks forecast
“We believe consumers' growing familiarity and confidence with online shopping, coupled with a dramatic increase in broadband penetration and continuing efforts by retailers to simplify the shopping process across channels, will translate to substantial gains for online merchants again this year,” said Dan Hess, senior vice president of comScore Networks. “While forecasted growth will be slightly lower this season than last, online retailers will still close the year up about 25 percent compared to 2003 – an impressive accomplishment given mixed signals of consumer confidence and a soft economy in general.”
“At the category level, we continue to see strong growth in Jewelry & Watches, Furniture, Appliances & Equipment and Home & Garden products, indicating a continued shift to online buying in categories that were traditionally only bought offline,” explained Mr. Hess. “Aside from the growth in direct online spending, we'll also continue to see the substantial impact on offline retail sales of consumers' use of the Internet to research products and compare prices.”
