The American consumer continued to shop and spend at high levels in February, according to the latest findings of the NRF Executive Opinion Survey, a monthly index by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The Retail Sector Performance Index (RSPI) dipped slightly in February with a reading of 62.8 percent, up 19.9 points from a year ago and 2.2 percentage points down from Januarys reading (65.0%).
The RSPI measures retail executives' evaluations of monthly sales, customer traffic, the average transaction per customer, employment, inventories and a six-month-ahead sales outlook expectation. The RSPI is based on a scale of 0% – 100% with 50% equaling normal.
“Retail executives are telling us that consumers continue to shop and buy,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF President and CEO. “Due to seasonable weather and strong Valentine's Day sales, it will be no surprise if February retail sales beat current expectations.”
The February Operations Index (average of employment and inventories) dropped from 52.1 in January back to Decembers 50.0. The index was 4.2 points above the same period in 2003.
The February Current Demand Index (average of sales and traffic) posted another high with a reading of 69.8 percent, well above the same period a year ago (37.0%) and 1.7 percentage points above the previous months reading.
Retail executives indicated that February sales were as strong as January (75.0%), demonstrating that consumers have continued to shop months after the holiday season, taking advantage of clearance merchandise and redeeming gift cards.
The most surprising surge came from customer traffic, which soared in February. The reading jumped 13.6 points from January to 71.9-by far the highest level since the surveys inception.
The survey also found that retail executives continue to be confident that the economy will maintain its current growth. The February Demand Outlook Index (a six-month outlook for sales) stood at 68.8 percent, the second-highest reading since the survey began in September 2002.
