Container cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to rise by 11% this month, 6% in the first half of 2011 and 7-8% in 2011 over the comparable periods in 2010, according to a forecast released by the National Retail Federation.
The growth indicates brands, wholesalers and retailers continue to up their orders in response to the rebound in consumer spending. It corroborates government statistics showing the wholesale inventory to sales ratios in the apparel sector were about 18% higher on an adjusted basis in December than a year earlier. The Federal Reserve Board, meanwhile, upped its GDP growth estimate for 2011 last week to 3.9% and said growth will edge up in 2012 and 2013.
“Strong growth in 2010 has retailers cautiously optimistic that the economic recovery is finally taking hold,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers are encouraged by six consecutive months of retail sales gains and improved consumer confidence.”
The first half of 2011 is forecast at 7.3 million TEU, up 6% from the first half of 2010. That compares with 17% growth in the first half of 2010 over the first half of 2009. For the full year, 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16% increase over 2009, when imports reached their lowest level seen since 2003.
“Our caution is that the rate of growth seen in 2010 will not be repeated, said Ben Hackett, of Hackett Associates which tracks container imports for NRF. “We are projecting that annual growth will be in the 7 to 8 percent range.”
