Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to rebound this month after a double-digit drop in late spring. However, it is forecasted to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to August 1 is greatly appreciated. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers.”

President Trump signed an executive order on Monday, July 7, delaying “reciprocal” tariffs until August 1, but also announced tariffs of up to 40 percent on over a dozen countries. The president has indicated he will send out additional letters to other countries. There are also questions about what happens with tariffs on China in August, even though a deal was recently signed with the U.S.

“A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in May, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 11.8 percent from April and 6.4 percent year-over-year. It was also the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEU in May 2024.

U.S. ports have not yet reported numbers for June, but Global Port Tracker projects the month at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9 percent from May but down 3.7 percent year-over-year. July is forecast at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1 percent year-over-year; August at 2.08 million TEU, down 10.4 percent year-over-year; and September at 1.82 million TEU, down 19.9 percent year-over-year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023. October is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 19.2 percent year-over-year, and November at 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3 percent, resulting in the lowest total since April 2023, at 1.78 million TEU.
While the falling aggregate totals from August to November are related to tariffs, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about potential East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes.

The current forecast projects that the first half of 2025 will reach 12.63 million TEU, representing a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase, which is better than the 12.54 million TEU forecast last month, but still below the 12.78 million TEU forecast earlier this year before the April tariffs announcement.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Image courtesy Port of Los Angeles