Mastercard SpendingPulse (MSP) reports that preliminary insights show that U.S. retail holiday sales, excluding automotive, increased 3.8 percent year-over-year from November 1 through December 24. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales, representing all payment types, and does not adjust the data for inflation.

“The holiday shopping season revealed a consumer who is willing and able to spend but driven by a search for value as can be seen by concentrated e-commerce spending during the biggest promotional periods,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute. “Solid spending during this holiday season underscores the strength we observed from the consumer all year, supported by the healthy labor market and household wealth gains.”

In September, MSP forecasted that sales would increase 3.7 percent year-over-year for the holiday period. Key retail trends for the full holiday season included the following:

  • The Most ‘Valuable’ Time of the Year. MSP said empowered consumers sought value when shopping this year, responding to promotions during the November and Black Friday shopping period in the run-up to December 24. Data shows that retail sales had a 3.8 percent increase compared to 2023, with the last five days of the holiday season accounting for 10 percent of all holiday spending.
  • A Balanced Basket. The research firm reported that consumer demand for experiences, including dining out, strengthened during the holiday season, with the restaurant sector spending growth of 6.3 percent compared to 2023. Additionally, MSP said this holiday season saw an increase in expenditures on goods compared to last year, with Apparel (+3.6 percent), Jewelry (+4.0 percent) and Electronics (+3.7 percent) as notable sectors.
  • Clicking All the Way. MSP reported that consumers increasingly preferred digital-first shopping this year, with e-commerce, curbside pick-up and delivery top-of-mind. Online retail sales grew 6.7 percent year-over-year, and in-store sales increased 2.9 percent. Notably, MSP said the Apparel sector showed a strong lead in e-commerce sales, with 6.7 percent growth for online purchases compared to last year. MSP had forecasted in September 2024 that sales were expected to rise 6.7 percent online and 2.9 percent in-store for the holiday sales period.
  • Digital-Savvy Shopping Cities. While shopping online for the holidays exceeded 2023, consumers living in specific cities in the U.S. embraced e-commerce more. Tampa (+10.6 percent) and Phoenix (+10.0 percent) led with double-digit digital growth, followed by Minneapolis (+8.9 percent), Dallas (+8.4 percent), Charlotte (+7.9 percent), Orlando (+7.8 percent), and Houston (+7.6 percent) coming in well above the national total for e-commerce spending compared to 2023.

“This holiday season, we saw consumers motivated by deals and retailers respond with promotions to meet the demand,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor at Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks Inc. “The value-minded consumer showed up to shop at brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce platforms, with retailers managing across both to capture attention throughout the season.”

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