U.S. retail sales over Black Friday – Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend may set a new record, surpassing $75 billion in sales, according to a forecast from Bain & Company. The weekend is expected to deliver year-over-year growth of around 5 percent, outpacing Bain’s overall holiday sales growth forecast of 3 percent for the entire holiday season.
Using proprietary data from Pyxis, Bain’s consumer intelligence division, trends show that consumer shopping patterns remain focused around the major shopping days of the season, with Black Friday again expected to rank as the top sales day for retailers. Cyber Monday, however, has seen its relevance fade as e-commerce growth slows and many shoppers cite the convenience of online shopping and sales days beyond the core weekend. In 2023, the day before Thanksgiving emerged as a major shopping day, likely influenced by Thanksgiving Day store closures and Bain expects that this year that trend may continue.
Retail momentum is expected to continue to be strong throughout the weekends leading up to Christmas, according to Bain, with peak shopping days projected on December 21st (the Saturday before Christmas) and December 23rd (the Monday before Christmas.) These late-in-season shopping surges are expected to help give an additional push to retailers achieving strong results in overall holiday shopping this season.
“Despite our slower growth forecasts for retailers this holiday season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend will likely be a bright spot, capturing its highest share of holiday spending in the last five years,” said Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain & Company’s Retail practice. “This has to do partly with more stores closing on Thanksgiving Day as well as how the calendar falls this year, with a later-than-usual Thanksgiving. Black Friday is a prime opportunity for retailers to refine their promotion strategies, ensure adequate inventory, and perfect in-store experiences. The retailers who are ready to meet consumer demand this season and prioritize this key holiday shopping window will come out ahead.”
As reported by SGB Media, Bain in mid-September issued its forecast for Holiday 2024, suggesting that the season will see nominal 3 percent growth year-over-year in U.S. retail sales, reaching just over $940 billion for the period. Bain said at the time that a potential rate cut could spur consumer confidence and sales may also benefit as some consumers feel wealthier from rising disposable income and strong stock market gains this year.
