The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance estimates for U.S. retail and food service sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday and trading-day differences, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) month-over-month (m/m) from July 2024, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) year-over-year (y/y) versus August 2023, a moderation from the 2.9 percent year-over-year increase posted in July.

Total sales for the June 2024 through August 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the comparative period a year ago.

The June 2024 to July 2024 percent month-over-month change was revised from up 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) m/m to up 1.1 percent (±0.2 percent) m/m since it was first reported.

Retail trade sales were reportedly up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) m/m from July 2024 and up 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) y/y from August 2023.

Non-store (e-commerce and mail-order) retailers were up 7.8 percent (±1.4 percent) compared to August last year, while food services and drinking places were up 2.7 percent (±2.1 percent) year-over-year.

The sector containing Sporting Goods stores, Musical Instruments, Books, and Hobby stores was reportedly down 3.6 percent year over year in August 2024, which is in sharp contrast to the CNBC/NRF report released on Friday, September 13, which had the sector down 10.8 percent year-over-year for the month.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau data, clothing, footwear, and accessories stores were up 1.0 percent year-over-year in August. The CNBC/NRF data had this sector up 11.4 percent year-over-year.

Department stores were down 2.1 percent y/y for the month.

The National Retail Federation’s Chief Economist, Jack Kleinhenz, said the August data released by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that retail sales continued to grow for the month fueled by rising wages amid falling inflation.

“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” Kleinhenz commented. “While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation, even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”

August’s core retail sales, as defined by the NRF, are based on the Census data, excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, were reportedly up 0.3 percent m/m seasonally-adjusted and up 3.3 percent y/y unadjusted.

Core retail sales were up 3.4 percent y/y for the first eight months of the year, in line with the NRF’s forecast for 2024 full-year retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent versus full-year 2023.

Image courtesy Valentino