With the holiday season over, inbound cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports should gradually decline during the first quarter of 2024 before increasing in the spring, according to the recently released Global Port Tracker report published by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“This is the traditional slowdown when the supply chain gets a break after the busy holiday season, but there’s always a new challenge on the horizon,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have been in the headlines, and the disruptions caused by those attacks have once again created volatility in retail supply chains. Retailers are working with their carrier partners on mitigation strategies to limit the impact, but we are seeing longer transit times and increased costs as a result.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said any effect from the Red Sea attacks would likely come at East Coast ports.
Most cargo headed to the East Coast from Asia comes across the Pacific and through the Panama Canal, but some of the cargo comes through the Red Sea before crossing the Atlantic, and carriers’ decision to go around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the attacks is adding five to six days to the month-long trip from Shanghai to Savannah via the Suez Canal. Some retailers are reporting delays of as long as two weeks.
“The number of containers arriving at East Coast ports should not be directly affected if carriers add ships to maintain capacity, but shippers will have to adjust their supply chains to cope with longer transit times,” Hackett added. “We may see an increase of Asian cargo arriving at West Coast ports and then shipped east via intermodal rail, but doing so is costly and does not save that much time. As expected, carriers are passing on the additional voyage costs and then some.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.89 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent or TEU, in November, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 8 percent from 2.06 million TEU in October, the busiest month of the year and the peak of the fall shipping season, but up 6.6 percent from November 2022.
Ports have not reported December numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.89 million TEU, up 9 percent year-over-year, bringing 2023 to 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8 percent from 2022.
Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.3 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
NRF said volume is expected to rise to 1.92 million TEU in January, a year-over-year increase of 6.1 percent, before slowing for the remainder of the quarter. February is forecasted at 1.76 million TEU, up 13.8 percent year-over-year, and March is forecasted at 1.7 million TEU, up 4.7 percent from last year.
February is traditionally the slowest month because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but the timing of the holiday and its impact on cargo varies. April is forecasted at 1.79 million TEU, up 0.2 percent year-over-year, and May at 1.92 million, down 0.8 percent from last year.
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
