Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to reach $209.7 billion from November 1 to December 31, representing a 2.5 percent growth year-over-year (YoY). During the 2021 holiday shopping season, $204.5 billion was spent online, growing 8.6 percent YoY, with consumers uncertain about returning to physical stores due to lingering pandemic concerns.

Consumers are expected to spend earlier this year as a second Amazon Prime Day, to take place October 11-12, before the holiday season arrives.

Amazon’s first Prime Day this year drove online record sales for the retail industry, with $73.7 billion spent in July, up 20.9 percent YoY. The e-tailer’s discounts could entice consumers to begin holiday shopping sooner, impacting Cyber Week performance. 

This year’s holiday season will also be impacted by the uncertain economic environment, as consumers see elevated prices offline (food, gas, housing) and the rising cost of lending.

Cyber Monday is expected to remain this holiday season’s and the year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $11.2 billion in consumer spending, increasing 5.1 percent YoY. 

By comparison, Black Friday online sales are projected to grow by just 1 percent YoY at $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are set to fall to $5.1 billion, down 1 percent YoY. 

Cyber Monday and Black Friday have lost prominence as e-commerce becomes a daily shopping activity and consumers see discounts continuing through the holiday season. 

Adobe expects Cyber Week, from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday, to bring in $34.8 billion overall, up 2.8 percent YoY, representing a 16.3 percent share of the full season, down from 16.6 percent in 2021.

Based on Adobe Analytics data, Adobe’s analysis covers over one trillion visits to U.S. retail stores, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

“The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week,” said Patrick Brown, vice president, growth marketing and insights, Adobe. “Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9 percent growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand,” $590 billion from January to August 2022.

Insights Into The Three Major E-Commerce Categories
Electronics, apparel and groceries will contribute $103.8 billion in online spending this holiday season, nearly half of what Adobe expects for overall spending, or $209.7 billion. These categories have emerged as the main online revenue drivers.

Adobe forecasted that electronics would drive $49.8 billion of online spending, up 2.9 percent YoY. Heavy discounts will impact margins and spending but attract enough shoppers to maintain growth. 

In apparel, shoppers could spend $40.7 billion online this holiday season, with a 6.7 percent YoY decline reflecting increased consumer interest in physical stores as pandemic-related anxieties subside. 

The sale of online groceries boomed in 2020 when consumers spent more time at home. Adobe expects groceries to drive $13.3 billion of online spending, growing 10.5 percent YoY, as consumers plan holiday meals.

Discounts Expected To Hit Record High For 2022 Holiday Season
Adobe expects discounts to hit upwards of 32 percent, a record high, this holiday season as retailers contend with oversupply and a softening consumer spending environment. Computers, electronics and toys will hit all-time highs: Discounts for computers are expected to be as high as 32 percent, up from 10 percent in 2021, while electronics discounts look to set a 27 percent increase, up from 8 percent, and toys at 22 percent, up from 19 percent. 

Other discount categories will include televisions at 19 percent versus 11 percent in 2021, apparel at 19 percent versus 13 percent, appliances at 18 percent versus 4 percent, sporting goods at 17 percent versus 6 percent, and furniture and bedding at 11 percent versus 2 percent).

Retailers will offer the largest discounts between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving Day, November 24, will be the best day to shop for electronics, while Black Friday, November 25, will have the best television deals. Saturday, November 26, will have the largest discounts on toys, with the best deals for apparel and sporting goods on November 27. 

Consumers shopping for computers or furniture should shop on Cyber Monday, November 28. Appliances will see top discounts on December 1.

While the days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday will have the best deals, consumers will see price discounts as early as the second week of October, as high as 15 percent. Discounts will also continue through the remainder of 2022, as high as 20 percent in the weeks after Cyber Monday, November 29 through December 31). 

Additional Highlights

  • Buy Now Pay Later: In 2020, the BNPL payment method gained traction as the pandemic drove consumers to manage their budgets differently. That year, online revenue share for BNPL grew 31.6 percent YoY. For the 2022 holiday season, BNPL usage is expected to slow. From January to September 2022, online revenue share from BNPL grew just 5 percent compared to the same period in 2021. While the growth was partly affected by the broader economic environment and a slowdown in consumer spending, BNPL also presents challenges in demonstrating value to consumers.
  • Most anticipated gifts: Top toys this holiday season are expected to be the Got2Glow Fairy Finder, Mini Brands, Squishmallows, LOL Surprise Dolls, Bluey toys, Disney Encanto and Cocomelon. Top gaming devices include the Nintendo Switch OLED, PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, with top games including Overwatch 2, Pokémon Scarlet/Violet, NHL 23, and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II. Other top gifts include Dyson Airwrap Styler, Apple Watch Series 8/Ultra, AirPods Max/Pro, Stanley Tumblers, and gift cards.
  • Curbside pickup: In December 2021, curbside pickup was used in 25 percent of online orders and should remain widely used for the holiday season. Adobe expects curbside pickup to peak from December 22 to December 23 at around 35 percent of all online orders while remaining roughly 25 percent through November 2022. In an Adobe survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers, 35 percent of respondents said they plan to use curbside pickup this holiday season.