The National Retail Federation forecasted that holiday sales will rise 2.2% this year to $470.4 billion. This gain would fall well below the ten-year average of 4.4% holiday sales growth and would represent the slowest growth since 2002, when holiday sales rose 1.3%.


The forecast falls between two holiday sales forecasts released last week that called for holiday sales to grow from 1.5% to as much as 3% – the least in 17 years.

 

“Current financial pressures and a lack of confidence in the economy will force shoppers to be very conservative with their holiday spending,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “We expect consumers to be frugal this season and less willing to splurge on discretionary items.”

A number of economic indicators point to a challenging holiday for retailers. A struggling housing market and rising unemployment accompanied by meager income gains will continue to hamper the consumer throughout the season. Food and energy costs will remain high. With the current financial industry crisis continuing to chip away at consumer confidence, NRF does not foresee an economic turnaround until the second half of next year.


NRF defines “holiday sales“ as retail industry sales in the months of November and December. Retail industry sales include most traditional retail categories including discounters, department stores, grocery stores, and specialty stores, and exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.