The most recent monthly Market Briefing data released by DestiMetrics parent Inntopia wrapped up the summer season for participating Western Mountain resorts and found that the season that closed on October 31 was in much better shape than it started. After the summer season wrapped up with moderate gains in occupancy, rates and seasonal revenue, attention now turns to the coming winter season and the pivotal role that economic conditions will play – along with the always crucial snowfall.

The most recent monthly Market Briefing from DestiMetrics, which includes data from approximately 28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain communities across seven states, finalized summer data dug deeply into the coming season. At season-end, the pre-Thanksgiving and pre-Christmas periods were said to be looking strong, while occupancy is expected to be softer in the week between Christmas and New Year’s and into early January. The report suggests this is due to rate resilience among some guests, contrasting with price-sensitivity among others. The report points out that while international visitation is still down sharply, particularly in Canada, things have improved since the summer.

“Although it is still relatively early in the booking season, resorts are poised for a good start to the season with some high-quality bookings for the pre-holiday periods despite a relatively flat booking pace during October,” reported Tom Foley, director of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “But there is no question that the economic ‘wild card’ has the potential to be wilder than usual this season, while weather has the opportunity, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, to be cold and snowy–although early evidence of that is varied across the country so far.”

October Closes Summer Season
The report said October occupancy softened but ultimately finished up enough to help deliver a high revenue for the season.

Bookings for October arrivals were down compared to last year, as many consumers pushed back against what turned out to be stronger-than-expected room rates. The result was fewer reservations—but with higher revenue quality, and occupancy was up 1.2 percent compared to last October, while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) was up 4.2 percent year-over-year (y/y).

“That boost in rate significantly bolstered the bottom line to deliver a season-high 5.4 percent increase in revenues for the month,” the report noted. “The mixed results during October enabled the summer season to conclude with a 1.1 percent year-over-year increase in occupancy and daily rates up 2.7 percent, while at 3.8 percent, revenue beat the most recent annual inflation rate.”

All Eyes on Winter
Bookings made in October for arrivals in October through March resulted in a 6.6 percent gain in occupancy for those six months, with the result being a very slight (0.1 percent) decline in booking pace for the entire period. But the report said there were some appreciably different monthly results:

  • Bookings for arrivals in October, January and February were down compared to last year, while
  • November, December and March reported gains, most notably in November with a strong 12.8 percent increase.

Overall, the flat booking pace during October reportedly “held back winter occupancy growth,” and the combined results for the full winter from November through April were said to be “slightly less robust” as of October 31 than at the end of September. Occupancy on the books for those six months was down 0.4 percent compared to last winter, with ADR up 3.6 percent for an aggregated $695/night with increases in all six months.

“October booking pace is always critical to how the winter tees up, and sometimes it can be a mixed bag,” noted Foley. “Although bookings in October for arrivals in November, December, and March were all better this year than last, the decline in January and February slowed down seasonal progression,” he continued. “But there are two sides to this coin, and the other side is revenue.  Bookings made in October for November and December arrivals were captured at a considerably higher room rate this year compared to last, and that translated into stronger overall seasonal revenue, which is where the rubber meets the road.”

Foley went on to observe that “this is also evidence of some excellent rate management that was developed during the challenging summer and may be an indication that suppliers are focusing more on the ‘right guest, right price’ rather than going for lots of guests at a lower price point,” he clarified.

Key Indicators for the Winter Season

Demand booking pace is a straightforward measure of room nights booked during the month and excludes variances driven by shifting inventory from the calculations for occupancy, providing a pure look at how consumers behaved during the month.

For arrivals from October through March, there were 1,339 more room nights booked during October for those six months compared to last year, to reach a slight 0.6 percent increase in demand. Changing the equation is the number of room nights available, and for the month of October this year, an additional 13,670 room nights were available for October through March, changing the denominator, which changes the percentage and more accurately reflects consumer demand.

Inventory available for rent, which is used to assess the industry’s occupancy capacity, increased during October, with 13,670 more nights available for rent as of October 31 than as of September 30.  Still, the report noted that there were approximately 24,000 fewer nights available for rental this year than last, an inventory deficit that continues summer trends.

“Inventory shifts are very common in mountain communities, where a significant percentage of rooms are privately owned and managed, and those deficits in inventory are usually due to higher owner usage,” explained Foley.

Winter occupancy softens slightly due to a mixed booking pace and changes in available inventory – going from a 0.2 percent increase as of September 30 to a 0.4 percent decrease as of October 31.

International winter demand is mixed by the market as trade and political policies continue to have a negative impact on international bookings at mountain resorts:

  • Bookings from Canada, the largest group of international visitors, are down 52.9 percent year-over-year and have been at this level for most of the last six months, with no sign of changing.
  • Bookings from Mexico are up 35 percent.
  • Western Europe bookings were up 9.6 percent.
  • Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) was down 28.4 percent.

Holiday occupancy was looking positive at the end of October with a few exceptions. The Thanksgiving holiday period from November 21 to December 5 is up 1.6 percent, with Thanksgiving Day up 7.4 percent y/y. Pre-Christmas arrivals from December 15-23 were said to be “looking solid” with gains on all days, while arrivals on December 26, 27 and 28 were said to be “down appreciably.”

Length-of-Stay elongated during October to reach its aggregated longest length for that month since 2021— up to 2.18 nights from 2.1 nights one year ago. This is notable since it occurred in the month with typically the shortest stays of the season. Foley pointed out that “longer stays are not only a revenue win for properties but help the bottom line as the interval between room cleaning and maintenance is longer.”

Average Daily Rate (ADR) strengthened over the last month, increasing from 2.3 percent year-over-year gain at the end of September to a 3.6 percent gain as of October 31, with the month of February leading with an ADR of $805/night.

It’s the Economy, Stupid
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set a third consecutive all-time high monthly closing at 47,562.9 points at season-end, up 2.5 percent from September and driven by strong corporate performance in big tech companies and the much-anticipated .25 percent cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve Bank. Strength on Wall Street heartened investors as retirement accounts accumulated value, but many analysts are raising red flags about the seemingly endless gains and their detachment from consumer, employer, and inflation data that signal struggles.

Both the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) released by the Conference Board and the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) from the University of Michigan slipped in October, with the CCI down one point as consumers waffled between feeling better about near-term business conditions but a bit worse about the extended outlook. At season-end, it was at its lowest reading since April, at 94.6 points, and marks the third time it has dipped below 95 points this year. Prices and inflation remain the top concerns. The CSI was also down in October, losing 1.5 points to finish at 53.6 points, its lowest level since May. Responses to both surveys were closely aligned, and despite strength in financial markets, the overall mood of consumers remained mediocre.

Since the earlier release of the Inntopia report, the November Consumer Sentiment levels fell even further.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 51 for November, hovering near one of the lowest levels in the monthly poll’s history. The final reading published this week was slightly above the preliminary November figure, 50.3, published in the preceding two weeks, but down from 53.6, which it recorded in October. The figure aligned with the number that The Wall Street Journal had polled economists to forecast.

The Index was down 29.0 percent y/y compared to 71.8 percent recorded in November 2024.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) rose for the first time in five months, representing a 1.4 percent increase from the previous month and a 33.7 percent drop from the same period a year ago.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Consumer sentiment was little changed this month with a 2.6 index point decrease from October that is within the margin of error. After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading. However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

Government unemployment data was unavailable for the Market Briefing published in November due to the government shutdown.

Looking Ahead
“We had a mixed October that included soft bookings but great revenue for that month, early season activity with flat bookings but moderately better revenue, and an early season foundation that is looking good,” offered Foley. “Some high-yield early season bookings for Thanksgiving and pre-Christmas are doing a good job of laying a solid foundation for the months ahead,” he continued. “But winter occupancy is down slightly, and so is actual demand based on shifts in available inventory. Yet, bottom-line revenue improved as those fewer bookings proved to be more rate resilient than we’ve seen lately and improvements in revenue help pad against some of the uncertainty the industry is facing in the coming months,” he added.

Foley concluded the monthly Market Briefing by observing that “while some resorts have already opened, we are well aware that economic indicators, inflationary pressures, and political mayhem are contributing to ongoing consumer caution about discretionary spending, so we’ll look for some bounty from Mother Nature to spark more booking activity in the weeks ahead.”

DestiMetrics
DestiMetrics, part of the Business Intelligence platform for Stowe, VT-based Inntopia, which is now owned by Outside Interactive. The company tracks lodging performance in resort destinations. Each month, the forward-looking reservation data is compiled and aggregated, with individualized results for each region, and distributed to subscribers at participating resorts. Approximately 28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain destination communities across Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho contribute to the data pool and represent an aggregated 55 percent of all available rental units in those regions. Results may vary significantly among/between resorts and participating properties.

Image courtesy Jackson Hole Mountain Resort