VF Corp. shares were upgraded to “Buy” from “Sell” by Williams Trading and to “Buy” from “Neutral” from BTIG ahead of the company’s earnings report on Wednesday, due in large part to further confidence that Vans is on the path back to growth.

At Williams Trading, analyst Sam Poser on Monday also raised his price target from $14 to $19 and his estimates on VFC shares. He wrote in a note, “The double upgrade is a result of subtle increase in momentum within Vans, led by the LX Old Skool Pearlized Pack, and because there’s no middle ground, in our view, with this stock, as any improvement or likely improvement in Vans’ trends will be received well by investors.”

Poser expects the increasing appeal of the Pearlized collection of Old Skool will help Vans’ sales inflect positive by the upcoming back-to-school season. He wrote, “The LX Old Skool Pearlized lace up, at $100 regular price, is true to Vans, has a Golden Goose treatment, retails for $100, has repeatedly sold out, and has sold for a significant premium on sites such as StockX.”

While Poser expects VF’s fourth-quarter results come in line within the guidance range, he believes the investor focus will be on forward guidance. He’s hoping for more clearer guidance on VF’s plans than he feels Bracken Darrell has been providing since taking over as CEO in 2023. Poser wrote, “The FY28 10 percent operating target provided in October ’24 appears completely unachievable, so, again, providing real, and convincing details about company’s long-term plans is of utmost importance.”

Poser further cautioned that Timberland’s sales may turn negative in late FY27 as he feels the brand has become too reliant on the 6-inch Wheat Boot. He also said VF has to be “very careful” in managing The North Face business after likely logging a healthy fiscal fourth quarter due in large part to cold weather.

At BTIG, Janine Stichter on May 6 set a $23 price target in upgrading VF to “Buy” while also raising her estimates for VF’s fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 years slightly higher on better top-line expectations. She wrote in a note, “After [approximately] 5 years of downward earnings revisions, estimates now appear appropriate with potential to move up as (1) Vans returns to growth after years of right-sizing, supported by industry data points and our proprietary survey work, (2) TNF momentum continues, supported by industry-wide tailwinds.”

Stichter sees the potential for Vans to exceed sales expectations in the fiscal fourth quarter and a return to growth in fiscal 2027 based on improved search trends, web traffic, and credit card data. Her team’s proprietary survey work point to “meaningful improvements” in brand perception versus two years ago and she sees “some early green shoots” in product across both classics and new styles.

She noted that Vans had declined from a peak of $4.2 billion in fiscal 2022 to $2.2 billion expected in fiscal 2026, with current levels now at a “much more appropriate level” to support balanced growth going forward. The analyst wrote, “To be clear, we do not believe Vans is set up for a hockey-stick inflection in trend but do see positive demand indicators that set the stage for modest, yet sustainable, growth.”

 Stichter also believes The North Face likely wrapped up a “strong outerwear season” based on credit card data, search interest, web traffic and Columbia Sportswear’s recent results to help VF achieve estimates in the near term. She noted that while The North Face is “less integral to investor sentiment,” it’s become the largest part of VF’s business with Vans’ retrenchment and makes up most operating earnings.

VF reports before the market opens on Wednesday. For the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31, VF has said it expects sales to be flat to up 2 percent on a constant currency (cc) basis, with a positive FX benefit of about 5 percent on the top line.

Vans sales are expected to decline roughly mid-single digits after declining 10 percent on a cc basis in the fiscal third quarter. The North Face is expected to be broadly in line with fiscal Q3 growth of 5 percent on a cc basis. Slower growth was projected at Timberland versus the 5 percent cc growth seen in fiscal Q3 due to plans to tighten distribution.

VF predicted adjusted operating income to be in the range of $10 million to $30 million compared with adjusted operating income of $22 million the prior year. The implied guidance places earnings per share between negative 4 cents to flat with analysts’ consensus estimate at negative 1 cent.

Among other analyst notes ahead of the earnings report, Joseph Civello, at Truist Securities, reiterated his “Hold” rating at an $18 price target.

Civello wrote in a note, “We have seen solid traction on TikTok for Pearlized & Satoshi Old Skools (immediate sell-outs + big crowds at stores), but these are very small-batch niche launches with much of the hype driven by extreme scarcity itself. We have not seen signs that demand trends for Vans are accelerating more broadly. While mgmt has still not provided a formal timeline for the brand to return to growth, we think some investors have gotten optimistic about a NT step-change. We think stronger Google Trends and 3rd party credit card data (Bloomberg, Truist Card Data & others) have boosted sentiment, but issues in data quality (from both sources) keeps us more cautious.”

Tesley Advisory Group maintained is “Market Perform” rating at a $20 price target in its earnings preview note.

Dana Telsey said her team will be listening to hear from VF’s management on the quarterly call whether The North Face continues to build on its recent successful “premiumization” efforts, marked by strong sales of its Summit Series range, as well as healthy recent demand for premium lifestyle-oriented products that should support higher AURs (average unit retails.) She also expects VF will offer further details on how it plans to capitalize on the popularly of Timberland’s yellow boot. Tesley’s concern remains the timing of Vans’ turnaround. She wrote that VF’s third quarter results “show continued improvement in execution, despite the volatile macro backdrop, though uncertainty on the timing of the Vans turnaround clouds visibility to overall improvement.”

At Needham, Tom Nikic recently reiterated hits “Buy” rating at a $25 price target, expecting Vans’ trends to continue to improve sequentially as the calendar year progresses. The analyst wrote, “We see a scenario where Vans returns to growth later this year (potentially back-to-school), which we think would be a positive thesis-changer for the stock. For years, the struggles of Vans were central to the bear thesis, and a return to growth would likely drive significant momentum in the stock, which is still down more than 80 percent from its all-time high, vs. the SPX which has more than doubled. There could be some upside in the quarter given the green shoots at Vans and momentum at the outdoor brands, but we think this is more of a ‘narrative stock’, and we think the story will continue to get better.”

Citi Research‘s Paul Lejuez recently reiterated his “Hold” while lowering his price target on VF to $19 from $20. He expects VF’s management will continue its “cautiously optimistic tone” around Vans but guide FY27 below consensus estimates.  He reduced his estimates for the fourth quarter due to weaker sales in EMEA than prior forecast and slightly lower GM while also reducing his FY27 estimates. Lejuez wrote, “We believe sentiment is mixed going into the call, with some investors moderating their Vans expectations over the past few weeks. However, we still view market expectations as higher than they have been going into previous earnings calls, which skews the risk/reward slightly negative.”

On Monday, VFC shares closed at $16.90, up 22 cents.

Image courtesy Vans/VF Corporation