The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December, from November’s upwardly revised reading of 92.9 amid ongoing concerns over jobs and business conditions. The latest figures are close to the group’s reading in April, when President Trump announced tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners.

The upward revision from November’s reading comes as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, plummeted by 9.5 points month over month to 116.8 in December.

The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, held steady at 70.7. The Expectations Index has now tracked below 80 for 11 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals a potential recession ahead.

The cutoff for preliminary results was December 16, 2025.

“Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index declined as net views on current business conditions were negative for the first time since September 2024, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes. Perceptions of employment conditions edged lower as the labor market differential (the share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying jobs are ‘hard to get’) continued to flag. Two of the three Expectations Index components dipped in December. November’s nose-dive in expectations for business conditions six months from now mostly reversed in December but remained negative. Expectations for labor market conditions were gloomier, and the outlook for household incomes was less positive.

Among demographic groups, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence dipped across all age groups in December, though consumers under 35 remained more confident than those aged 35 and older. There were few generational differences, as confidence across all generations trended downward in the month, with only the Silent Generation (born between 1928 and 1945) becoming more hopeful. Millennials and Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed.

By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis fell for nearly all brackets, except for those earning less than $15K and more than $125K. Still, consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Confidence continued to fall in December among all political affiliations (Democrats, Republicans and Independents).

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances—including interest rates, taxes and income, banks, and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than in November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.”

Nonetheless, the share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise was on net higher, while the proportion expecting lower rates declined. Consumers’ median and average 12-month inflation expectations both retreated in December after an uptick in November. The balance of consumers’ expectations for stock prices twelve months from now (higher minus lower) was the most positive since January 2025.

On net, consumers’ views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation collapsed into negative territory for the first time in nearly four years. However, expectations for their Family’s Future Financial Situation were the most positive since January 2025.

Meanwhile, the share of consumers who believe a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “not likely” edged up to about one-fifth of respondents, while those who say it is “very likely” continued to recede. Still, the largest share of consumers, those anticipating that recession is “somewhat likely”, grew again, and the small percentage stating that the US is “already in one” crept higher.

Consumers appeared more cautious about plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months. Consumers who said “yes” to buying big-ticket items ahead edged higher in December. However, the number of those saying “no” increased, and “maybe” declined.

Overall auto buying plans dipped again in December. On a six-month moving-average basis, expectations for purchasing new cars continued to slip, while plans to buy used cars continued to climb. Homebuying expectations also ticked downward. Plans to buy household appliances also dipped, as did plans to buy PCs and laptops, as well as video game consoles. By contrast, future spending plans for smartphones, tablets, and digital cameras continued to trend upward on a six-month moving-average basis. Used cars, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular within their categories for future purchases.

On balance, consumer spending trends in 2025 shifted towards cheap thrills and necessary services, and away from expensive, highly discretionary activities. In December, consumers planned spending on services over the next six months was little changed from November, but those saying “yes” to buying more services remained healthy. Month-over-month, anticipated spending on restaurants, streaming, personal care, and utilities picked up in December, while future purchases of other discretionary services categories softened. The top categories for planned services spending over the next six months still included restaurants, bars, take-out, streaming, internet, mobile services, beauty and personal care, utilities, and healthcare. Vacation intentions continued to decline in December. Plans for domestic travel over the next six months still exceed those for international vacations, but both have fallen.

Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned mildly pessimistic in December.

  • 18.7 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 21.0 percent in November.
  • 19.1 percent said business conditions were “bad,” up from 15.8 percent.

Consumers’ views of the labor market were also weaker in December.

  • 26.7 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 28.2 percent in November.
  • 20.8 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 20.1 percent.