The run specialty channel experienced growth this year, largely driven by higher average selling prices rather than increased unit sales and in-store traffic. The channel growth is also weaker than the broader market.
These observations were shared by David Durkin, co-owner of the consultancy firm Karnan Associates, and Beth Goldstein, footwear and accessories analyst with Circana, during a Tuesday, December 2, research and trends session at The Running Event (TRE) taking place this week in San Antonio, TX.
Circana figures presented during the session show that dollar sales in running footwear across all channels, excluding the brand’s direct-to-consumer sales, were up 9 percent to $5.33 billion in the 12 months through September, up from a 7 percent gain in the comparable period a year ago. The 9 percent growth in the run specialty channel dwarfs the 1 percent overall growth in the total footwear market over the same 12-month period.
Running now accounts for about 10 percent of the overall footwear market and has gained about a share point due to recent growth, according to Goldstein.
The gains in running footwear dollar sales across channels are being driven by higher volume and higher prices this year, while last year’s gains reflected only inflation.
Unit sales in the current period were up 4 percent to 52.5 million after declining 2 percent in the same period a year ago. Average selling prices grew 5 percent in 2025 to $102 after expanding 9 percent in the year-ago period.
Goldstein said the price increases have lately been tied to tariffs but also suggested that consumers are showing that they are willing “to trade up” for innovation and newness.
By comparison, Karnan Associates found that dollar sales of running footwear in the run specialty channel rose only 3.1 percent in the 12-month (T12) period through September. Unit sales were up slightly, up 0.3 percent, after being slightly down, off 0.1 percent, in the year-ago T12 period. Average selling prices increased 3.3 percent in the latest period to $145.95 after expanding 2.1 percent in the comparative T12 period a year ago.
Running Participation’s Momentum
The slower top-line growth in the run specialty channel compared to the industry average comes despite seemingly ideal market conditions. Durkin noted that the recently completed New York City Marathon had nearly 60,000 finishers, the largest marathon to date, a record that has been broken five times in the past two years by three different major U.S. marathons.
Durkin also pointed to findings from RunSignup that showed total event participation was up 8 percent year-to-date over last year’s record-breaking year, and to Strava data that shows that running club participation on its platform surged 59 percent year-over-year in 2024.
Durkin added, “Running shoe sales are up 9 percent. The data all looks good. In addition, we have all the anecdotes of Bloomberg saying that a sub-three-hour marathon is the new Wall Street flex. Forbes said running clubs are the new trend, so it’s a great time to be in the business of running, and I know some of you feel that, and you’re having great years, and I know for a fact, some of you are not feeling that, and you may be flat or even down this year.”
Online Competition
Any mixed performance among run specialty players could reflect continuing pressure from online sellers. Goldstein noted that across all footwear categories, about 40 percent of sales are online, up from roughly 30 percent pre-COVID.
In running footwear, in-store accounted for 57 percent of all sales in the 12 months through September, while online accounted for 43 percent. Online is also growing faster, up 10 percent in the period, outpacing the 6 percent growth in-store.
Amazon, which owns Zappos, is the No. 1 footwear retailer and ranks No. 2 in running, with about 11 percent share of sales. The online portion also comes from DTC sales from vendors and from growth in sporting goods, department stores and other channels.
Goldstein added that the 6 percent in-store growth in running footwear still “shows us that consumers value the in-store experience in this industry.” She noted that growth across footwear categories has been largely driven by online sales in recent years.
Consumers may be trading down to lower-priced channels due to inflation. However, Goldstein noted consumers are also willing to trade up for innovation. Run specialty’s average price is $145.95, about 40 percent higher than the $102 average running footwear price across channels.
Run specialty prices are also about 10 percent higher than the $119 average running shoe in the 12-month period in the athletic/sporting goods stores channel, which includes chains such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy Sports and athletic footwear stores Foot Locker and JD Sports.
Run Specialty’s Missed Opportunities
The presentation from Durkin and Goldstein largely focused on opportunities that specialty stores could miss by not adequately targeting certain customer segments or by underestimating certain categories or trends.
Goldstein noted that specialty run stores may have a better opportunity to target certain age groups since running footwear’s growth was not coming from all age demographics. She cited teens as a potentially larger opportunity, noting that the age group has lately accounted for about a quarter of the growth in running footwear but represents only slightly more than 10 percent of sales. The 25-to-34-year-old segment is likewise contributing about 40 percent of the growth but only about 20 percent of sales in running footwear.
The 55-plus demographic is also delivering higher growth than it accounts for in running footwear sales, offering potential for better targeting. Goldstein said, “That’s a consumer that has disposable income, the population there over the next five to 10 years is growing, and so this is going to be a demographic that is going to represent a piece of consumer spend.”
On the other hand, sales of running footwear among those aged 35 to 54 have declined.
Goldstein also indicated that Circana data shows that running stores may have a greater opportunity to target those looking to buy running shoes for casual use or walking. She pointed to potential in running lifestyle offerings, a category three times the size of performance running, and noted that performance running styles and lifestyle running models are often bought together. Training and recovery footwear could also be untapped growth opportunities for run specialty, with the main reasons for buying recovery footwear shifting from post-workout relief to everyday comfort.
Goldstein also recommended that running stores fine-tune their marketing around subsets of runners.
A recent survey of 1,000 consumers showed about 49 percent identified as runners. Of those, 56 percent identified themselves as casual runners, or those running occasionally; 34 percent as moderate runners or running regularly; and about 10 percent as serious runners.
Goldstein said both casual and moderate runners prioritize physical and mental fitness and challenge themselves as reasons they run, but moderate runners over-index in challenging themselves. Serious runners were most focused on running races and participation, but also highly valued the social aspect of running, even more so than casual runners. She also noted that while all three runner types value comfort, fit, quality, and durability, moderate and serious runners prioritize features and innovation over price, whereas price ranked third for casual runners.
Goldstein said, “It’s all important to segment the market, whether it is this way or another way you choose to do it, to really understand what consumers are looking for and how not all consumers that are coming into the store are looking for the same thing.”
Durkin’s advice: “Meet customers where they are.” He noted that run shops have traditionally focused on beginners. Today’s newer runners are more advanced. Stores may need to engage them at their workplaces, running clubs, social events, or on social media. He said, “They’re online, they’re on social media, they’re being influenced, they’re learning about product, and they’re buying product all over the place.”
Durkn stressed the importance of having what the customer is looking for and showing them “what’s next.” With much discovery happening online, stores should carry the hot brand or new category trending on social media. He also saw stores have opportunities in areas such as fuel and hydration, and reflective and cold-weather gear as winter approaches, if they better anticipate their customers’ needs. He said, “It might not be things that customer needs or are ready for today, but we’re able to introduce them around the corner so that they have a reason to come back, and they trust us as the place to find those things.”
Durkin also stressed the importance of including second- and third-tier options to help customers confirm their choice, as well as differentiation through service, experience, and segmentation. He said, “We think that the growth opportunities are thinking outside of our existing four walls and thinking outside of our existing assortment.”
Market Share Shifts Among Running Footwear Brands
Karnan Associates also presented data showing that five of the top-selling footwear brands in the run specialty channel were from Brooks, Hoka, New Balance, Asics, and Saucony, respectively, and were down a collective 7.4 percent in the run specialty channel in the 12 months through September. The remaining five footwear brands, including On, Altra, Nike, Mizuno, and Topo, grew by 9.4 percent combined.
Brooks, which was down 6.8 percent in dollars, held the No. 1 spot in run specialty in both periods with Hoka, down 7.4 percent in dollars, close behind. Footwear dollar sales at run specialty declined 4.6 percent at New Balance and 2.1 percent at Asics, while gaining 1.0 percent at Saucony.
Among all brands on the Top 10 list, Nike showed the strongest growth in run specialty, up 35.4 percent and moving up one spot in ranking to No. 8 from No. 9 a year ago. Topo’s growth was close behind, climbing 30.9 percent year-over-year with the brand, owned by Designer Brands, Inc., retaining its spot at No. 10. Mizuno saw dollar growth of 1.9 percent, slipping to No. 9 from No. 8 a year ago due to Nike’s climb.
The On brand saw the steepest decline, with Karnan Associates data showing sales dropped 19.7 percent in dollars at run specialty, resulting in its rank sliding to No. 6 as Saucony moved up to No. 5.
Favorably, eight of the Top 10 footwear brands in the running specialty channel saw margin rates increase.
“This is a story we’ve seen with nearly every store we work with, where footwear margins are at historic highs,” said Durkin. “The highest margin gains are also with those six through 10 brands that are having the most growth, so those brands are showing both sales growth and margin growth, so we’re seeing significant increases in profitability of those brands outside the top five.”
Among adult running footwear brands sold across all channels, excluding DTC brands, Brooks and Hoka were neck-and-neck in leading share, at around 23 percent each, according to Circana data. Brooks had a slightly larger share in the 12 months through September, although Brooks’ share was down slightly and Hoka was up slightly over that period. Hoka’s average selling price was $137 across channels, compared with $121 for Brooks.
Nike moved ahead of the On brand on the Top 10 list to become the third-largest seller of running footwear across all channels. Nike’s average selling price was only $83, while On’s $143 per-pair ASP was the highest among the Top 10 running footwear brands across all channels.
Rounding out the Top 10 in running footwear dollar sales across all channels were Asics, New Balance, Skechers, Saucony, Altra, and Under Armour. Skechers saw the strongest share gain, moving up to the seventh spot from No. 10. Skechers’ prices were lower than all other brands on the Top 10 list, with an average price of $54 in the 12 months through September.
New Balance and Asics are also gaining share in running footwear across all channels, with Goldstein believing both brands are benefiting from innovation. She said, “New products account for more of the business this year than they have in the past few years. So that’s super important in flowing the innovation and the newness in getting the consumer to continue to return.”
Image courtesy Nike
