The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index improved slightly for the second straight month, with an improved outlook on the present outweighing consumers’ pessimism about the near future. The Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged up by 0.8 points in March to 91.8, from 91.0 in February. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased by 4.6 points to 123.3.

The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, declined by 1.7 points to 70.9.

The Conference Board’s index was slightly more upbeat than the University of Michigan’s latest monthly survey, which found U.S. consumer sentiment fell more than expected in March, touching a three-month low, driven by higher gas prices and inflation expectations following the beginning of the Iran war.

The Conference Board’s survey period for preliminary results was March 1 to 24, 2026. While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs from tariff pass-through and spiking oil prices was evident in other survey measures, such as inflation expectations.

“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.”

The Present Situation Index rose again in March, as net views of current business conditions rose to +5.6 percent after hovering around 1 to 2 percent for three months. Perceptions of employment conditions improved slightly, with the labor market differential — the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” — ticking up by 0.1 ppt to +5.8 percent. The Expectations Index dipped as two of three components — net perceptions of labor market and household income conditions six months from now — edged downward. However, expected business conditions were slightly less pessimistic in March.

Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to moderate in March for consumers under age 35 and 55 and over and was virtually unchanged after a multi-month decline for those aged 35 to 54. Respondents under 35 remain the most optimistic, and those 55 and over the least. On a six-month moving average basis, Gen Z remained the most confident among all generations, but their optimism slipped in March, along with that of the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, and Gen X. Only Millennials cited improved confidence in the month. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to dip in six of eight income groups. Only consumers earning $25,000 to 34,999 and $125,000 and over were somewhat more optimistic. Consumer confidence by political affiliation was little changed. Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was substantially lower among Independents and the lowest among Democrats.

Peterson added, “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”

Unsurprisingly, given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government. Consequently, the percentage of consumers stating that interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net skyrocketed from 34.9 percent to 42.4 percent. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now plunged.

Consumers’ net views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation improved slightly in March after a February retreat. Expectations for their Family’s Future Financial Situation remained less optimistic. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who said a US recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” rose, while those saying “somewhat likely” or “not likely” fell. The cohort that believed the US was already in a recession remained virtually unchanged. These measures are not included in the calculation of the Consumer Confidence Index.

Image courtesy REI / Charts courtesy Conference Board