The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dipped in May from April as the inflationary effects of the war in the Middle East intensified.

The research group reported Tuesday, May 26, its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.1 in May from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 92.0.

The Present Situation Index,  based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – retreated by 3.2 points to 121.2. The Expectations Index,  based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions- rose by 1.0 points to 74.4. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was May 1–19, encompassing the ongoing war in the Middle East that is placing upward pressure on prices globally.

“Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and the current labor market were moderately less positive compared to last month. This was somewhat offset by modest improvements in consumers’ expectations for business conditions and the labor market six months from now. Meanwhile, income expectations eased in May, as those anticipating less income rose.”

The Present Situation Index cooled again in May, as net views of current business conditions—the share saying conditions are “good” versus “bad”— fell by 2.8 ppts to +1.4 percent. Perceptions of employment conditions declined slightly, with the labor market differential — the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”— ticking down by 0.6 ppts to +6.9 percent.

The Expectations Index increased by 1.0 point in May, with two of its three components—net expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now — inched up. Expected household income was slightly less positive.

Among age groups, confidence ticked up for consumers aged 35-54, but trended downward for older and younger consumers, both month-over-month and on a six-month moving average basis. By income, confidence among higher income groups trended upward on a six-month moving average basis. By generation, confidence improved for the Silent Generation (the oldest group) but was little changed or lower among other generations. By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while Independents were the only group that saw confidence tick up on a month-over-month basis.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in May. References to prices and oil and gas increased in frequency for a second consecutive month, while mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict remained elevated—likely signaling consumers’ underlying concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East on their wallets.

Consumers’ Average and Median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but remained elevated. The percentage of consumers who stated that interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net stood at nearly 50 percent in May. The ongoing stock market rally, largely fueled by the tech sector and rising hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict, likely influenced consumer expectations of higher stock prices a year from now.

Consumers’ net views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation and Family’s Future Financial Situation were both somewhat less positive in May. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who said a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “Very Likely” or “Somewhat Likely” rose. Those saying a recession is “Not Likely” declined. (These measures are not included in the calculation of the Consumer Confidence Index.)

Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months continued to shift from “Yes” to “No” in May. Nonetheless, the proportion saying “Yes” remained well above the other responses. Auto-buying plans continued to rise on a six-month moving-average basis in May, with used cars remaining the clear preference over new cars. Homebuying expectations inched higher on a six-month rolling basis overall, as plans to buy existing homes rose, offsetting a small dip in newly built units. Spending plans for white goods, home furnishings and electronics eased slightly or remained unchanged on a six-month moving-average basis.

Consumers planning more spending on services over the next six months shifted from “Yes” and “Maybe” to “No” in May. Future spending plans on services were mixed. Consumer spending trends in 2026 remained focused on “cheap thrills” and necessary services, but demand for discretionary services such as personal travel, fitness, amusement parks, and gambling increased slightly. Among all service categories, restaurants/bars/take-out, streaming/internet/mobile services, and beauty and personal care remained among the top three spending targets.

Travel intentions for the next six months ticked up in May, and consumers continued to favor domestic destinations over international travel. Overall, expected spending on hotels/motels and airfare/trains for personal travel increased in May, correlating with an uptick in vacation plans.

These findings are supplemented by a set of special questions run in May 2026:

  • As of May, two-thirds of consumers cited cutting back on spending overall due to rising prices.
  • Most who are cutting back bought fewer items and delayed expensive purchases.
  • Many who said they are delaying purchases of items they want rather than need, plan to buy them in the next six months.
  • Consumers planned to economize on clothing and footwear, hobby items, and games/toys.

Charts courtesy The Conference Board