According to the latest edition of the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index, 80 percent of small business owners surveyed feel confident in the future success of their businesses, and nearly 8 in 10 (79 percent) foresee sales growth in 2026.

“Small businesses have navigated a year filled with challenges, from tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown, yet their optimism remains unwavering,” said Comerica Bank Executive Vice President and National Director of Retail and Small Business Banking, Larry Franco. “This spirit speaks volumes about the adaptability and determination of America’s entrepreneurs as they prepare for growth in 2026.”

The national survey of 1,013 small business owners was conducted from November 4 to 16. Key Findings in the Index include:

  • 80 percent of respondents are somewhat or very confident about their business outlook for the next 12 months. Confidence is strongest in the Southern Region of the U.S. (83 percent), among technology firms (93 percent), health care firms (90 percent), and businesses with 10 or more employees (88 percent). Housing and real estate firms report the lowest confidence at 67 percent.
  • 79 percent of respondents anticipate revenue growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of 7.9 percent. Technology and construction firms lead in optimism, while sole proprietors and retail businesses show more caution.
  • 57 percent of respondents plan to make capital expenditures in 2026, averaging $109,000 per expenditure. Technology firms top the list with planned investments for 2026 averaging $187,000. Top concerns include Inflation (23 percent), followed by tariffs (14 percent) and government policies or regulations (11 percent).
  • 42 percent of small business owners surveyed report negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, with manufacturing and retail sectors hardest hit. Most expect these impacts to persist or worsen in 2026. Over half (53 percent) of respondents said that the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts have positively impacted their business, prompting one in three to invest more or take calculated risks heading into 2026.

Summary Statistics
The Comerica Small Business Index edged down to 55.5 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 56.0 in the third quarter but still indicated an optimistic small business sentiment. Less upbeat expectations for business conditions and sales growth were partially offset by strengthening Capex plans and stronger own business confidence.

Government Shutdown: A Temporary Setback
The 43-day federal government shutdown, which ended on November 13, 2025, left a mark on Main Street. Nearly 3 in 10 small business owners surveyed (29 percent) reported negative impacts, with the hardest-hit areas being the D.C.-Maryland-Virginia region (49 percent), the leisure and hospitality sector (38 percent) and firms with 25 or more employees (36 percent). Despite the challenges, two-thirds of respondents said they were unaffected, showing the adaptability of small businesses even amid prolonged government policy uncertainty.

Mitigating Tariff Impacts: How Small Businesses Are Adapting
With 42 percent of small business owners reporting negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, some have taken, or are considering, steps to shield their operations. Top mitigation strategies taken or being considered include:

  • Accessing Credit: 23 percent of small business owners surveyed have taken new loans or tapped credit lines; this rises to 26 percent among female-owned businesses (vs. 21 percent among male small business owners).
  • Workforce Adjustments: 22 percent of respondents froze hiring or laid off employees, with higher rates among companies with 10 or more employees (28 percent) and retail businesses (24 percent).
  • Personal Sacrifices: 18 percent of respondents tapped into personal savings, home equity or retirement funds to offset shortfalls.
  • Delaying Investments: Nearly one in five surveyed business owners has delayed or plans to scale back capital expenditures.

“Policy shifts, from tariffs to interest rate cuts, are reshaping how small businesses operate,” added Franco. “While trade challenges have driven rising costs and supply chain disruptions, many owners are responding with creativity and leveraging lower borrowing costs to invest and innovate, signaling a proactive approach to growth in 2026.”

Despite external pressures, the Index calls out that small businesses are prioritizing efficiency, innovation, and growth in 2026. Nearly half (48 percent) of small business owners surveyed cite improving operational efficiency as their top goal in 2026, while 45 percent of tech firms plan to integrate new technologies.

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