While the back-to-school shopping season has been historically defined as an eight week period starting in mid-July, a look at the more recent historical retail point-of-sale data compiled by SportScanInfo reveals a much shorter selling period that really does not commence until the first week of August each year.  Goods may hit the floor in July, but the consumer is clearly starting to ring the cash register later.


Based on that observation, Sports Executive Weekly has compiled a back-to-school season-to-date review of the SportScanInfo data that measures retail point-of-sale information for the four-week period ended August 28, which also matched up to the retail fiscal month of August.


Despite the many negative economic indicators over the summer, August was seen as a very strong month for the sport footwear business and may be a solid indicator for a strong September ahead.  Overall Sport Footwear sales, which represent the aggregated athletic and outdoor footwear categories, were up in the mid- to high-single-digits for the four-week pre-season back-to-school period, driven by double-digit gains in the Running footwear category and strong triple-digit increases in the Toning category.  Unit sales were only up in the low-single-digits for the period.   The resulting average selling prices for all Sport Footwear for the BTS season-to-date period were up roughly 4%, about a point below the ASP gains for the year-to-date period. 


Sport Footwear sales in the Sport Retailer segment of the market, which includes the Full-Line Sporting Goods, Mall Specialty, Sport Specialty and Internet channels, was up more than 10% for the month.  ASP’s in the Sport Retailer segment were only up 3% for the month, due largely to a small decline in ASP’s in the Full-Line Sporting Goods channel.


If history continues to repeat itself and the sport footwear market does not experience a double peak this year, the back-to-school selling season peaked one week earlier this year than last year, but matched up against the peak weeks in 2007 and 2008.                          


Sales, when measured in units, were up in the low-single-digits versus the comp period last year, but only up roughly 1% versus the 2008 period.  Total unit sales growth for the August period since 2007 was only about 2.5%.  However, when looking at sales measured in dollars, the Sport Footwear business was up nearly 7% versus the comp period last year, only 6% since the comp period in 2008, but is up in the mid-teens since the pre-recession 2007 August period.


The Sport Footwear business in the all-important Sport Retailer segment was up in the high-teens for August compared to the same month in 2007.


The biggest drivers for August were Jordan Basketball and Lightweight Running.  Toning also made a significant contribution, but Toning was not expected to be a strong back-to-school category.  While sales were up significantly, there is evidence the category fell short of some retailers’ expectations.  A heavy round of promotions was expected to hit Labor Day weekend, with many of the rocker bottom styles promoted at up to 40% off suggested retail.  Whether this move is a result of heavier retail inventories or a repositioning of the rocker bottom product at lower prices as newer low-profile product hits the market-is part of the current debate.


Average selling prices for Toning Shoes was down 6.2% for the month of August and was down over 20% for the Toning Sandals category for the period.


“We really see the toning category as a segment of the broader fitness business,” said James Hartford, chief market analyst for The SportsOneSource Group and managing editor of this newsletter.  “As such, we expect that trends in toning will continue to trend positive into September, a traditional reset period for fitness in the sporting goods industry.”


Still, Lightweight Running is the real volume driver for the market.  For the first time in some time, the broader market is now outpacing the running specialty segment in the performance running category.  While the running specialty segment has seen growth in performance running footwear moderate to growth in the high-single-digit to low-teens range, the broader market is posting growth in strong double-digits.


The categories that saw the largest average selling price percentage increase for the month of August included Women’s Fitness, Fashion Training, Hybrid Water Shoes, Outdoor Casual Shoes, all of which saw ASP’s increase in double-digits.  The Lightweight Running category saw ASP’s rise just under 10% for the period.


On a consolidated basis, men’s and women’s Sport Footwear category sales improved in the high-single-digits for the four-week period ended August 28 while the kids’ business declined in the low-singles for the period.  Excluding the Wheeled Footwear category, which is comprised almost entirely of the Heelys brand, the kids business would have been flat for the month.


Based on current year-to-date trends, The SportsOneSource Group has revised its forecast for Sport Footwear sales for the year, now estimating that dollar sales for the business will increase in the mid– to high-single-digits. 


“If the year-to-date and current trends hold through the balance of the fall season, we expect the market could exceed the $20 billion mark at retail for he first time,” suggested Hartford.  “The lower end of our forecast would put the full year forecast for Sport Footwear at $19.5 billion to $19.7 billion.”