Sensormatic Solutions forecasts U.S. in-store traffic for the holiday season will be relatively flat to down 3 percent compared to last year. To date, brick-and-mortar visits this year have been down slightly (roughly 2.5 percent on average) compared to last year.
Sensormatic also noted that, as in 2024, U.S. retailers will see their largest crowds on Black Friday (November 28), with the last two Saturdays before Christmas (December 13 and 20) taking the next two spots.
The Sensormatic Solutions retail traffic consulting and analytics group compiles its annual forecast based on historical holiday traffic data and current trends identified by using its proprietary ShopperTrak Analytics solution.
“The holiday rush is right around the corner, and competition for customer attention this year will be fierce,” said Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions. “With economic uncertainty affecting both shoppers and businesses, stores that prioritize precise, personalized omnichannel promotions will have an edge come November, and data analytics will be the key enabler of these efforts. Our busiest days predictions can help retailers get a sense of what’s to come and—when paired with source-to-store visibility into their supply chains—guide the path to the convenient, seamless in-store experiences shoppers crave.”
In 2025, Christmas falls on a Thursday for the first time in over a decade. Sensormatic stated that while early promotions in the weeks leading up to Black Friday and concerns about product availability encourage shoppers to complete their gift-buying earlier, the late-week holiday could translate into a sustained high-traffic period in the week preceding the holiday. As in years past, early afternoon is expected to be the busiest time of day for in-store shopping throughout the season, with traffic likely to peak between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m.
“To no one’s surprise, our predictions show that Black Friday will still be the highlight of the U.S. holiday shopping season, but retailers are likely to see some interesting deviations from recent years thanks to the calendar and changing shopper preferences,” said Grant Gustafson, head of Retail Consulting and Analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, whose team forecasts the season’s top busiest days. “It’s a great example of how one-to-one historical traffic data can provide a framework for retailers’ holiday planning, but it can’t tell the entire story. It’s why we look to a broad range of indicators when determining our predictions for the busiest days of the season.”
Based on Sensormatic Solutions U.S. traffic data, the company forecasts that for the 2025 holiday season, the busiest shopping days will be as follows:
- November 28 (Black Friday)
- Nov. 29 (Saturday after Thanksgiving)
- Dec. 6 (First Saturday in December)
- Dec. 13 (Second Saturday in December)
- Dec. 19 (Friday before Christmas)
- December 20 (Super Saturday)
- December 21 (Super Sunday)
- Dec. 23 (Tuesday before Christmas)
- December 26 (Boxing Day)
- Dec. 27 (Saturday after Christmas)
“Our data from the past year shows that the retailers that ‘win’ the holiday season carry that momentum into the new year,” Gustafson continued. “More than three-quarters of 2024’s holiday traffic leaders have maintained an edge throughout 2025 so far. Given the increased interest in and use of in-store pickup options, which was a defining feature of the 2025 back-to-school rush, these programs are likely to be key differentiators throughout the holiday shopping season. Businesses that keep a close eye on their real-time data and are prepared to maintain seamless pickup and in-store journeys will fare better in the eyes of their customers this winter—setting them up for success in the year to come.”
