New Salesforce data is forecasting a robust holiday season for global retail — but the company is cautioning that retailers who haven’t adopted an AI-first mindset may miss out. The numbers, which are said to come from 1.5 billion global shoppers’ data using various Saleforce technologies, show that November and December (Holiday) digital sales are expected to reach an unprecedented $1.25 trillion, marking a 4.0 percent year-over-year (y/y) increase.

“While cooling interest rates are increasing consumer spending power, the way consumers are shopping is changing at a fundamental level,” the company said in its advisory. “Salesforce estimates that a significant portion of the growth this upcoming holiday season is attributed to the rise in AI and agent-referred traffic.”

AI and agents are projected to drive 21 percent of all Holiday orders globally, accounting for $263 billion in sales, according to Salesforce.

This would mark a notable increase from the 2024 Holiday period, highlighting how quickly consumers are integrating AI assistants like ChatGPT and Gemini into their shopping journeys.

Salesforce reported that traffic from AI assistants has grown rapidly in 2025, with online traffic volumes growing 119 percent y/y in the first half of the year. Conversion rates from these channels were reportedly over 700 percent higher than social media traffic in the first half of this year and 200 percent higher than other traffic sources like traditional search and direct, demonstrating their effectiveness.

Trends Driving Holiday Retail
The Salesforce forecast also points to a growing consumer preference for thriftiness and sustainability in the face of trade uncertainty.

“A remarkable $64 billion of Holiday sales will come from the resale market, driven by consumer sentiment around potential tariff volatility,” the company noted, suggesting that the trend isn’t limited to personal use. Salesforce said 46 percent of shoppers plan to give a previously-owned item as a gift, with Saving Money being the top reported reason for consumers leaning into resale. Saving Money was called out as the reason why 77 percent of consumers report that they will wait until Cyber Week to make their major purchases.

Salesforce added that while digital is a strong driver of consumer Holiday shopping behavior, the physical store remains a critical sales channel for holiday shoppers. The company said this is especially true for Gen Z, where three in four Holiday shoppers expect to shop in store, especially on key days like Black Friday.

Despite being a digitally native generation, for every $1 a Gen Z shopper spends online, they’re projected to spend $3 in a brick-and-mortar store. Salesforce said this emphasizes the importance for retailers to create a cohesive brand experience across all channels, capturing a new generation of consumers both on and offline.

Despite the positive sales outlook, Salesforce said retailers are also expected to be cautious with promotions.

“The forecast anticipates 2 percent fewer orders placed with a promotional code, likely in response to rising supply chain costs,” the advisory noted. “This strategic pullback on discounts, combined with the rise of AI-driven sales and the burgeoning resale market, paints a complex picture of a retail landscape rapidly being reshaped by technology, evolving consumer habits, and rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions.”

How Retailers Can Generate Revenue Amid Evolving Consumer Shopping Habits
With a potentially blockbuster revenue year ahead, including U.S. online sales projected to increase 2.1 percent from last year, retailers must be ready to capture their piece of the pie, Salesforce stressed.

“Our data shows that retailers can tap AI to capture revenue share, specifically across the buying journey and customer support,” the company noted in its advisory.

Consumer-facing large language models (LLMs) and generative answer engines have transitioned from the meme makers of 2022 to hyper-personalization tools that are transforming the way people find new brands and products across the shopping landscape.

Salesforce said its data shows that 17 percent of consumers have used an AI assistant or LLM in the last year for product searches. “More importantly, trust in these AI recommendations has surged, with 86 percent of users now trusting them, up from 46 percent in May,” the company said.

“Our data shows that 17 percent of consumers have used an AI assistant or LLM in the last year for product searches,” Salesforce highlighted.

The company said that the ability to optimize a site’s product listings, promotions, and messaging for emerging generative AI search experiences will be a crucial strategy for brands. Across the industry, this shift is being described in many ways — generative engine optimization (GEO), answer engine optimization (AEO), AI optimization (AIO), and even LLM search optimization (LLMO). But no matter the label, the opportunity is clear: Generative search is rapidly emerging as a new digital search channel for discovery, expanding the landscape that SEO has long defined.

Beyond product discovery, consumers’ interest in AI agents that can act on their behalf is also reportedly rising.

“Our data indicates that 48 percent of shoppers who already use AI for shopping are open to having an AI agent make a purchase for them,” Salesforce noted. “Digital retailers that integrate these AI agents to guide shoppers from discovery all the way through checkout will likely see higher conversion rates.”

Salesforce concluded its Holiday outlook by suggesting that AI agents are also making customer service more efficient.

“For the first time in a decade, we’re expecting a decrease in customer service case interactions ‌— ‌a clear sign that agents can handle many of the routine inquiries faster and free up human agents to focus on more complex cases,” the company forecasted. “We predict the use of AI and agents for customer service will grow by 39 percent over the holiday season, leading to an overall 2.5 percent decrease in customer interactions. This is a testament to the power of agents in understanding and delivering on the needs of customers more effectively than ever before.”

Salesforce’s Five Predictions for the 2025 Holiday Season, can be found here.

Methodology 2025 Salesforce Holiday Insights and Predictions: Salesforce analyzed aggregated data powered by Agentforce, Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Service Cloud to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 89 countries, with a focus on 18 key markets: Asia-Pacific (excluding Australia, Japan, and New Zealand), Australia, Belgium, Canada, Eastern Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latin America (LAM), the Middle East and Africa (MEA), the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Nordics, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States. This battery of benchmarks provides a deep look into the last nine quarters and the current state of digital commerce. Several factors are applied to extrapolate macroeconomic figures for the broader retail industry. These and other results are not indicative of Salesforce performance.

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