Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to increase 10 percent in March compared with the same month last year, and year-over-year gains should continue through mid-summer, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.


“Retailers are still watching all the economic indicators very carefully, but there are enough signs of improvement that stores are carefully stocking up,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers only import more if they expect to sell more, so these numbers are a sign that optimism is growing.”


U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.22 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in January, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 4.4 percent from December and 1.3 percent from January 2011. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.


February, historically the slowest month of the year, was estimated at 1.05 million TEU, down 4.2 percent from a year ago, and March is forecast at 1.2 million TEU, up 10 percent from last year. April is forecast at 1.26 million TEU, up 3.6 percent; May at 1.28 million TEU, the same as last year; June at 1.3 million TEU, up 4.2 percent; and July at 1.36 million TEU, up 2.8 percent.


The total for 2011 was 14.8 million TEU, up 0.4 percent from 2010’s 14.75 million TEU. The first half of 2012 should total 7.32 million TEU, up 2.4 percent from the same period last year. NRF continues to project 2012 retail sales will grow 3.4 percent to $2.53 trillion.


Despite the increases, ship owners have more vessels in service than cargo to fill them and are experimenting with “rate restoration” strategies that could impact retailers and other shippers, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said.


“The maritime industry is in a quandary,” Hackett said. “As long as this imbalance exists, there will be volatility in the freight rates.”