A survey released by the Outdoor Industry Association found that small businesses have a more negative view about the economy than they did in the fall 2008 or in spring 2009.  The results reflect the third survey conducted by OIA, in conjunction with Piper Jaffray, in the past nine months. Nearly all businesses were independents with revenues less than $50 million annually.


Among the findings, 57% of respondents indicated they were “very concerned” when asked to indicate the level of concern surrounding current economic conditions affecting their business. That's up from 47% last spring and 37% last fall. Eighty-eight percent of retailers signaled they are “very concerned” versus 44% of vendor respondents.


Regarding recovery expectations, only 45% of respondents expected revenues to remain flat in 2009 or up versus last year, and only 28% saw revenues rising this year. A scant 5% are indicating revenues will be up significantly. Among retail respondents, 71% of respondents are expecting a decline in 2009 versus only 47% of those in the vendor community.


This past spring, 53% of all respondents expected sales to either rise or remain the same in 2009. In the first survey conducted in November 2008, all respondents saw flat or rising sales.


Regarding recovery timing, a whopping 91% of respondents believe the recovery will be no sooner than the first half of 2010. Twenty-two percent of those businesses actually expect the recovery to come after 2010. In the first survey last fall, 88% of respondents believed the recovery would come this fall.
Internally, 40% of respondents indicated employment has decreased over the last three months versus 38% in the spring.

 

Respondents' outlook for the future also decreased with 25% expecting employment declines versus only 20% in the spring.
Regarding inventory levels, 58% of businesses plan to lower them over the next three months, consistent with spring results. However, 18% of respondents plan to reduce inventory significantly, and acceleration from only 12% this spring.


The report concludes, “While revenue declines are prevalent throughout the sector, we believe employment reductions, cheaper goods and fewer markdowns will continue to stabilize margins in the second half of 2009.”