Outdoor holiday sales are projected to grow 3 percent in 2025, driven by early shopping patterns and the resilience of higher-income consumers, as reported in the Outdoor Industry Association’s (OIA) 2025 Outdoor Holiday Report.

In OIA’s Executive Summary, the association calls out that higher-income consumers, who make up 35 percent of the outdoor industry consumer base, continue to spend with the benefit of wage growth (up 3.6 percent) and increased discretionary budgets, while lower-income consumers (34 percent of the outdoor industry consumer base) are constrained by slower wage growth (down 1 percent) and impacted by rising costs for essentials.

OIA also identifies in the report that “inflation, which was up 2.9 percent in August, continues to squeeze budgets, with prices on essential goods (i.e., food, shelter, electricity, healthcare) increasing between 3 percent and 6 percent in the month.”

On the positive side, OIA found that despite economic headwinds, outdoor sales rebounded in July with a 5.5 percent increase in dollars sold at retail, led by footwear, especially road and trail running shoes. OIA said the strength in the category indicates “consumers are selectively investing in higher-value items.”

July’s sales performance continued to show income disparities.

  • Higher-income consumers (2.2 percent spending growth) are driving the market;
  • Low-income wage earners are flat at 0.3 percent growth, constrained by cost-of-living increases.
  • Among product categories, footwear paced the gains, led by road running, up 13.4 percent in dollars, with trail running shoes up 22.7 percent in dollars.

OIA stated, “Shoppers are purchasing fewer units but are willing to pay for higher-priced items they perceive as essential to well-being and recreation.

The association also cites its holiday forecast, which calls for 3 percent growth, as an earlier start to back-to-school selling this year, signaling an extended holiday shopping season.

Regarding holiday selling, OIA advised, “Campaigns that target high-income households with premium offerings, while simultaneously framing outdoor experiences and gear as affordable, high-value gifts for cost-conscious families, will best capture the breadth of consumer demand this season.”

Image courtesy Gorsuch