Retail sales bounced back in October, showing both monthly and year-over-year gains heading into the holiday shopping season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

The report also notes that total retail sales, excluding auto dealers and gas stations, were up 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5 percent unadjusted year-over-year in October. That compared with a decrease of 0.66 percent month over month and an increase of 5.42 percent year-over-year in September.

“Retail sales grew in October as consumers geared up for the holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid, supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations. These factors point to continued momentum heading into the holidays as consumers focus on family, friends and finding value to make their budgets go further.”

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants, in addition to auto dealers and gas stations), powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the National Retail Federation, was also up 0.6 percent month over month in October and up 4.89 percent year-over-year. That compared with a decrease of 0.49 percent month over month and an increase of 5.72 percent year-over-year in September.

Total sales were up 5.11 percent year-over-year for the first 10 months of the year, and core sales were up 5.28 percent.

The October results come as the NRF has forecast that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent compared with 2024, to just over $1 trillion.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

October sales were up in all but two of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, clothing and sporting goods stores, and were also up in all but two categories monthly.

Specifics from key sectors include:

  • Digital products, such as electronic books and games, were up 2.02 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 22.39 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
  • Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.42 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 7.89 percent year-over-year year unadjusted.
  • Sporting goods, hobby, music, and bookstores were up 0.09 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 7.19 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
  • General merchandise stores were up 0.58 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 6.99 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
  • Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.13 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 6.58 percent year-over-year, unadjusted.
  • Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.59 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 4.08 percent year-over-year, unadjusted.
  • Health and personal care stores were up 0.58 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and up 1.9 percent year-over-year, unadjusted.
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.08 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 1.7 percent year-over-year, unadjusted.
  • Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81 percent month over month, seasonally adjusted, and down 8.52 percent year-over-year, unadjusted.

Image courtesy Ralph Lauren