Imports at major U.S. container ports are forecast to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariffs; however, it is also too soon to gauge the impact on the industry due to the conflict in Iran, according to a recent Global Port Tracker report* released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs, but other tariffs have already been announced, and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” the NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold, stated. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses.”
Gold continued, “While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”
In February, the Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. President Trump immediately announced a temporary 150-day 10 percent tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and his administration later said the tariff rate could be increased to 15 percent. His administration is also looking at launching a series of new Section 301 trade investigations.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said it’s too early to see the effects of recent actions in Iran on U.S. container imports.
“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” Hackett said. “While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in January, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have not yet reported their data. That was up 3.8 percent from December 2025 but down 6.4 percent year-over-year.
U.S. Ports have not yet reported numbers for February, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3 percent year-over-year. March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2 percent; April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1 percent; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7 percent; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8 percent, and July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8 percent.
Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5 percent from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The year-over-year increases in May and June are largely due to the sharp drop in imports during those months last year, following the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.
Imports during 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
*Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Image courtesy Port of Los Angeles
