National Retail Federation Forecasts Small Decline in Holiday Spending

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday sales to decline 1.3 percent, a mild dip amid economic uncertainties and concerns over tariff-driven higher prices, based on a recent survey os U.S. consumers.

Spending per person is expected to drop to $890.49, down from $901.99 last year. Even with the decline, it’s the second-highest total since the NRF began its survey 23 years ago. The 2024 holiday spending intention marked a record.

“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”

NRF’s survey of 8,247 adult consumers, conducted from October 1 to 7, found that nearly all U.S. adults (91 percent) plan to celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa this year, in line with recent years.

Of the total, $627.93 will go toward gifts for family and friends. The remaining $262.56 will be used on seasonal items such as food or candy, decorations and greeting cards.

Early shopping remains popular, with 42 percent of surveyed respondents planning to browse and buy for the holidays before November. The leading reasons are to spread out their budgets (54 percent) or to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping (41 percent). Even with the early start, the majority (60 percent) anticipate finishing by December.

Tariffs remain top of mind for most respondents, with 85 percent expecting higher prices due to tariffs. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, up from 59 percent last year.

“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” Prosper Executive VP of Strategy Phil Rist said. “This is particularly true for those families with children who are expected to increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average.”