The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its annual holiday forecast, anticipating retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent over 2024. That translates to a total spending range of between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3 percent over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices, given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
Retailers are hiring additional support to meet consumer demand this holiday season. NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market. By comparison, there were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.
Mathews added that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market at this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October. Due to the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season.
The NRF stated that a notable headwind this year is the federal government shutdown, which is particularly challenging, given its timing just before the holiday season. Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts.
The NRF’s latest holiday survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, which is separate from the holiday sales forecast, found that consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. The amount is the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
The NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling that utilizes various key economic indicators, including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales releases. The NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. The NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.
