With most holiday merchandise on hand and tariffs continuing to rise, as a result, monthly import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to fall below 2 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) for the remainder of the year, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
The latest tariffs — a 25 percent rate on upholstered furniture, regardless of country, and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities — are set to take effect next week and are scheduled to increase in January. A tariff increase on imports from China, which was delayed by 90 days in August, is scheduled to take effect on November 10, unless a deal is reached or President Trump decides to extend the delay.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in August, down 2.9 million from July’s 2.39 million TEU, the peak month for the year, but up 0.1 percent year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8 percent year-over-year. October is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 12.3 percent year-over-year, and November at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2 percent. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEUs, down 19.4 percent year over year, marking the slowest month since March 2023, when 1.62 million TEUs were handled.
While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are due to both this year’s early peak season and the fact that imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, representing a 3.7 percent year-over-year increase. The full-year forecast is 24.79 million TEUs, representing a 2.9 percent decrease from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024. January 2026 is forecast at 1.87 million TEUs, down 16.1 percent year-over-year, and February 2026 is forecast at 1.77 million TEUs, down 12.8 percent.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Image courtesy Port of Los Angeles/Charts courtesy NRF
