According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to steadily decline for the remainder of the year amid rising tariffs. This latest forecast follows a near-record peak this summer, driven by the tariffs as brands and retailers rushed to bring goods into the U.S. before the August cut-off date for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs took effect.

“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10 percent tariffs,” commented NRF VP of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “We also continue to see more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

While “reciprocal” tariffs on several countries took effect in early August, a U.S. federal appeals court later ruled against President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs but left them in place while the ruling is under appeal with the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Trump delayed an increase in tariffs on China by 90 days to November 10, allowing trade negotiations to continue. Trump also announced an additional 25 percent tariff on India, which took effect near the end of August, bringing the total tariff rate to 50 percent.

“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) — equivalent to one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in July, although numbers for the ports in New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades, and Miami, FL, respectively, were estimated because they had not yet reported their data, according to the latest report. That was up 20.1 percent from June as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of the tariffs set to take effect in August, and up 1.8 percent year-over-year (y/y). It would be the second-busiest month on record, topped only by 2.4 million TEU in May 2022.

U.S. ports have not yet reported numbers for August; however, Global Port Tracker forecasted the month at 2.28 million TEUs, down 1.7 percent y/y but higher than the 2.2 million TEUs expected before the postponement of U.S.-imposed China tariffs and the new U.S. tariffs on India.

September is forecast at 2.12 million TEUs, down 6.8 percent y/y; October at 1.95 million TEUs, down 13.2 percent, and November at 1.74 million TEUs, down 19.7 percent. December is forecast at 1.7 million TEUs, down 20.1 percent y/y for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEUs in March 2023.

While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are due to both this year’s early peak season and the fact that imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns about port strikes.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.6 percent y/y. The full year is forecast at 24.7 million TEUs, down 3.4 percent from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.

January 2026 is forecast at 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.1 percent year-over-year.

 Image courtesy Port of Virginia