Amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and most holiday goods already in stores or warehouses, import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to slow as usual in November and December, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain, but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”

A 20 percent “fentanyl” tariff on China will be reduced to 10 percent on November 10, and a significant increase in “reciprocal” tariffs on China, which was twice delayed to take effect on the same day, has been pushed back for a year.

An existing 10 percent reciprocal tariff on China, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, remains in place. However, the Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday, November 5, regarding the legality of tariffs under the IEEPA.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the on-again, off-again tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike.

“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.’

The developments come as THE NRF forecasts that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent compared to 2024, reaching just over $1 trillion.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.1 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in September, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 9.3 percent from August and 7.4 percent year-over-year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for October, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5 percent year over year. November is forecast at 1.85 million TEU, a 14.4 percent decrease year over year, and December is forecast at 1.75 million TEU, a 17.9 percent decrease.

Following July’s peak of 2.39 million TEU, November and December would be the slowest months of the year. December would be the slowest month since March 2023, with 1.62 million TEU.

November and December are traditionally slow periods, but the large year-over-year declines are partly due to the fact that imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over potential port strikes. In addition, this year’s tariff-driven frontloading pulled up late-year cargo.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7 percent year-over-year. The full-year forecast is 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1 percent year over year; February at 1.85 million TEU, down 9 percent, and March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7 percent.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Image courtesy Post of Charleston