The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) annual back-to-school survey forecasts over double-digit growth this year, with spending by families with students in elementary through high school expected to increase 9.9 percent and spending for college-aged students expected to surge 16.6 percent. The survey also identified a continued shift toward earlier back-to-school shopping as well as an emphasis on affordability.
Families with students in K-12 plan to spend an average of $863.86 on products this year, up slightly from $858.07 in 2025. Total spend is expected to reach a record $43.3 billion, driven by slight increases in planned spending on shoes, school supplies and electronics. The total is up from $39.4 billion in 2025 and surpasses the previous survey high of $41.5 billion set in 2023.
K-12 shoppers plan to spend an average of $293.11 on electronics ($14.7 billion total), followed by $250.29 on clothing and accessories ($12.5 billion total), $174.01 on shoes ($8.7 billion total) and $146.45 on school supplies ($7.3 billion total).
Looking at shopping destinations, only half of K-12 shoppers (50 percent) plan to purchase items online, down from 55 percent last year. Other leading destinations include department stores (47 percent), discount stores (44 percent) and clothing stores (39 percent).
College students and their families are expected to spend a record $103.5 billion on back-to-school shopping this year, surpassing $100 billion for the first time and surpassing last year’s $88.8 billion. Shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,437.79, up from $1,325.85 in 2025 and surpassing the previous record of $1,366.95 set in 2023.
Electronics remain the top college spending category, with consumers planning to spend an average of $341.95, totaling $24.63 billion in sales. Rounding out the top spending categories are $194.00 for dorm or apartment furnishings ($14.0 billion total), $182.39 on clothing and accessories ($13.1 billion total), $153.91 on food ($11.1 billion total) and $133.34 on personal care items ($9.6 billion total).
“The rise in college spending is being driven by increased purchasing plans across multiple categories,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “The percentage of consumers planning to purchase electronics has increased significantly this year, while several other categories are also attracting more shoppers than previous years.”
While it remains the leading shopping destination, only 41 percent of college spenders plan to shop online this year, marking the lowest level since 2016 (38 percent). Other popular shopping destinations include department stores (33 percent), discount stores (33 percent) and college bookstores (25 percent).
Back-To-School Shoppers Seeking Early Deals
The survey showed consumers are getting an early start on back-to-school shopping, with 62 percent having started shopping for the school year by early July, according to NRF’s annual survey conducted in partnership with Prosper Insights & Analytics. While the figure is down slightly from 67 percent at the same point in 2025, it remains significantly higher than the 55 percent reported in 2024.
“Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season,” said NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews. “Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further. Retailers are responding with a strong assortment of products, promotional events and more convenient shopping options, helping families find what they need while saving time and money.”
Many consumers are delaying purchases until later in the season or spreading out their shopping to manage their budgets. Among those who have not yet purchased at least half of their back-to-school items, 46 percent say they are waiting for the best deals to finish their shopping, while 23 percent are spreading their budgets.
About half of consumers who participated in the survey (47 percent) said they plan to purchase only the essentials needed for the start of the school year and replenish as needed throughout the year.
Surveyed respondents also took advantage of seasonal promotions to save, with 54 percent reporting they shopped major June sales events such as Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Deal Days specifically for school-related purchases.
Methodology: Since 2003, NRF has conducted a comprehensive survey on back-to-school shopping trends. This year’s research included 7,677 consumers and was fielded July 1-8, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
Image courtesy Walmart / Charts courtesy NRF
