Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to see a significant year-over-year decline during the first half of 2026 as the impact of tariffs continues in the market, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” commented NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”

NRF suggested that a Supreme Court decision could “come at any time” on the legality of the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but Wall Street has determined that it is more likely on or after February 20. If the Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, NRF said there are other concerns that the administration could implement tariffs under other trade authorities, creating further challenges and uncertainty.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is affecting import volumes.

“The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike, combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented, makes trade forecasting very difficult,” Hackett said, adding that last year’s government shutdown is still making up-to-date government data difficult to come by. “Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer.”

It has been reported widely that the supply chain is experiencing a glut of containers that would otherwise be on the water, full of spring/summer goods bound for retail.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.99 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in December, although the Ports of Houston and Charleston have not yet reported their data. That was down 1.7 percent from November and down 6.6 percent year-over-year (y/y).

According to preliminary data from the Port of LA and Wabtec Corp., import volumes through the Port of Los Angeles increased 3.3 percent during the first half of 2025 versus the prior-year H1 period and then fell 4.2 percent y/y in the back half of the year.

According to the Global Port Tracker data from NRF, overall volume into U.S. ports totaled 25.4 million TEU for the full year in 2026, down 0.4 percent year-over-year from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

The NRF said that ports have not yet reported numbers for January, but Global Port Tracker projected January at 2.11 million TEU, up from December, ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia but down 5.2 percent year-over-year. The Port of Los Angeles/Wabtec data showed that the Port of Los Angeles volume was down 2.2 percent through January 2026.

Global Port Tracker is forecasting February at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1 percent y/y; March at 1.89 million TEU, down 12 percent y/y; April at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1 percent y/y; May at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3 percent y/y, and June at 2.12 million TEU, or up 8 percent from the June 2025 volume.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.27 million TEU, down 2 percent from 12.53 million TEU during the comparative H1 period in 2025. The Global Port Tracker report indicates that May and June results show a year-over-year increase largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston, TX on the Gulf Coast. 

Image courtesy Port of Virginia