RetailBI released its Q3 2025 Shooting Sports Retail Report, which confirms what many in the shooting sports industry have felt over the summer period — the “Trump Slump” is no longer speculation.

Combining this new data, along with the slide in NICS background checks since the President’s Inauguration Day, is often evidence of a perceived “2A-safe” period for gun owners and purchasers. Sales and background checks generally rise when consumers feel their Second Amendment (2A) rights are challenged by one administration, only to decline when they see less threat to future purchases or gun ownership.

The company, which collects same-store sales data from participating retailers and e-commerce sites, said its retail-level data shows widespread softness across nearly every major category, with sales declining and inventory trends diverging.

“Drawing exclusively from same-store sales data reported directly through select point-of-sale and e-commerce systems within RetailBI’s network of retailers, the Q3 report offers a clear, unbiased look at what is actually happening at the counter,” the company said in a media release. RetailBI called the current situation, “Sentiment of Firearm Market Slowing Meets Data Reality.”

Key trends highlighted in the report include:

  • Firearms: The steepest quarterly sales drop in over a year, with rifle inventory not yet matching demand.
  • Ammunition: Double-digit declines nearly across the board, but prices are holding firmer than expected.
  • Optics: Down less than firearms, reflecting stable retail discipline.
  • Suppressors: Pullback continues as buyers wait for 2026’s expected tax-stamp repeal.

“While talk of an accelerated firearm industry slowdown has been building for several quarters, the Q3 2025 Shooting Sports Retail Report confirms a deepening imbalance between sales velocity and stock levels that could shape Q4 strategies,” the research company suggests.

“Slow demand was expected, but slow reaction is not,” said Kaleb Seymour, VP of Data & Analytics, Gearfire. “The third quarter was a wake-up call. The question now is who will adjust before year-end and who will get caught waiting.”

The concerns may be short-lived after the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) reported that the September 2025 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure increased by 2.0 percent, marking a return to positive growth after seven consecutive months of decline.