Boosted by the retro running trend, New Balance saw the strongest preference share gains in Stifel’s Back-to-School 2025 Athletic Footwear Survey.

Adidas also gained ground with the continued popularity of the Terrace style, while “challenger” brands — such as Asics, On, Hoka, and Saucony — also increased their share. The major laggard was Nike, which was impacted by the fading popularity of its Classics franchises, including the Dunk, Air Force 1 and Jordan 1.

In a note, Peter McGoldrick, Stifel’s lead analyst in the active lifestyle space, said back-to-school shoppers are seeking out a broader range of athletic footwear brands across brands, styles, and price points, which is supporting a more balanced brand environment.

“Back-to-School 2025 includes the greatest diversity in style popularity in a decade,” he said. “Retro Runners are gaining popularity (New Balance 9060, Nike Vomero 5, New Balance 1906) as the Hoops Classics trend continues to wane (Nike Dunk, Nike Air Force 1, Jordan Brand). We see the Terrace Style trend flattening (Adidas Samba, Campus, Gazelle, Handball Spezial), while Contemporary Running becomes a more meaningful consideration with popularity growing steadily on both a sequential and y/y basis (On Running, Hoka brand, Asics brand).

Stifel’s analyst team visited and called 110 stores, including Dick’s, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line/JD Sports, Champs, and Hibbett Sports, to gather data on the popularity of footwear styles for the back-to-school (BTS) season.

Nike Hits All-Time Low for “Most Popular” BTS Brand
Nike, including Jordan and Converse, was cited as the “most popular” brand at 38.2 percent of store checks, down from 61.4 percent in Stiefel’s 2024 BTS survey, reaching an all-time low for the survey, which dates to 2008.

McGoldrick said, “Encouragingly, momentum for the Nike Vomero 5 drove the fastest growth in share of mentions of any style, though it is more than offset by right-sizing of the declining Hoops Classics franchises.”

Stifel’s team also tracks the frequency of total brand references and specific styles through its checks of brick-and-mortar stores. The Nike Brand was mentioned in 87 percent of checks, down 4 percentage points year-over-year, as well as down 4 percentage points since Stifel’s February 2025 survey timed to the NBA All-Star game.

McGoldrick said, “The brand faces a headwind from shifting preference from Hoops Classics, where it enjoys dominant share, towards Retro Runners, where the brand has credible offerings, but in a much more crowded brand landscape.”

Jordan Brand was referenced in 33 percent of retail checks, down 1 percentage point, but not cited in the Top 10 Most Popular Styles. Converse was cited by 4 percent of checks, a flat year-over-year rate.

One area of strength for Nike was its e-commerce operations. Nike and Jordan products represented 46 percent of the Top 20 styles on retailer websites, a 2-percentage point increase year-over-year.

McGoldrick said, “We believe the difference between digital and physical trends is supported by Nike’s position as the default back-to-school brand of choice. Alternatively, challenger brands are performing better in physical locations where consumers touch and feel the product and have greater tangibility of choice.”

New Balance Boosted by Retro Running Fever
New Balance surged to the second “most popular” brand, at 31 percent, up from only 15.5 percent a year ago and 24.1 percent in Stifel’s February 2025 survey. McGoldrick said, “New Balance is the leader of the Retro Runner craze, with momentum in the New Balance 9060, New Balance 1906 and the New Balance 740, which was released in October 2024, and likely has more room to run.”

For BTS 2025, stores referenced New Balance in 63 percent of checks, up from 44 percent in Stifel’s 2024 BTS survey and as low as 7 percent of mentions in the 2022 BTS survey.

Adidas was cited as the “Most Popular” brand in 23 percent of checks, up 8.7 percentage points year-over-year. The Adidas Samba was the most frequently referenced shoe, highlighted in 46 percent of store checks, aligning with consumer preference for low-profile shoes. Adidas’ appeal is also supported by the continued relevance of look-alike styles, such as the Campus, Gazelle and Spezial. McGoldrick believes the terrace trend “may have peaked” with the style marking its third year of popularity with BTS. He said, “Notably, the adidas Superstar received mentions in 2 percent of checks, and is likely an area of emphasis for adidas to extend brand relevance with the newly engaged audience.”

The remaining eight most-popular brands were Asics, cited by 2.5 percent of retail checks; On Running, also 2.5 percent; Hoka, 1.8 percent; Other, 1.8 percent; and Vans, 0.5 percent.

Following Nike, New Balance, Adidas, and Jordan, the remaining Top 10 athletic footwear brands, ranked by mentions, were Asics (20 percent), On Running (15 percent), Hoka (10 percent), and Vans, Brooks, and Saucony, all with 7 percent.

Asics and Saucony Pace Challenger Brands Gain
Among the challenger brands, the strongest gains in reference were seen by Asics, which improved by 8 percentage points year over year; Saucony, up 7 percentage points year over year; and On and Hoka, both ahead by 4 percentage points.

Stifel’s report found that Asics benefits from favorable trends towards retro tech styles, for which Asics has a strong heritage, with strong mentions for the Gel 1130 and Gel NYC.

Saucony, owned by Wolverine Worldwide, saw its first mention in Stifel’s Back-to-School survey history. Stifel said the brand is showing “clear signs of traction with young consumers.” It benefited from expanding to 1,300 new lifestyle-oriented doors, including Foot Locker and Finish Line/JD Sports. At lifestyle-oriented doors, Saucony’s ProGrid Omni 9 was referenced in 7 percent of checks and was the most popular style in one Foot Locker. McGoldrick said, “Aligning style dynamics and improved go-to-market capabilities suggest the brand can become a more meaningful player in the future. It has a long runway for continued growth from a $408mn 2024 revenue base.”

Stifel attributed On Running’s gains to “strong brand momentum” and increasing shelf space at tracked retailers. McGoldrick noted that On is still only carried “at a fraction” of Dick’s, Foot Locker, Finish Line/JD, and Hibbett physical stores and isn’t sold at Champs or Academy.

Hoka benefited from increased popularity mentions from Foot Locker and Hibbett locations, which serve more lifestyle-oriented consumers and represent “a broadening consumer profile compared to the performance running brand heritage.”

Among other brands, Brooks’ brand popularity reference of 7 percent was flat year-over-year.

Vans’ Knu Skool was referenced as the most popular in 0.5 percent of checks, compared to 2.7 percent in BTS 2024 and 1.8 percent in All-Star 2025 checks. However, the retailers tracked in the survey are not core to the Vans business.

Puma brand popularity was referenced in 5 percent of stores, up 3 percentage points year-over-year, “with consumers attracted to audacious fluorescent colorways in basketball and lifestyle shoes,” according to Stifel’s study.

Under Armour’s popularity was referenced in 2 percent of checks, up 1 percentage point year-over-year and ahead 2 percentage points compared to Stifel’s February 2025 survey.

Image courtesy New Balance