Fifty-five percent of middle market retail executives don’t expect an economic recovery to materialize until after the holidays, while 45 percent believe a recovery is already here or is well underway, according to a retail outlook survey  released by CIT Group Inc. Thursday.

The survey, which was conducted by Forbes Insights, found almost 25 percent of respondents saying they don’t expect to see a recovery until 2015.
 
Looking toward this holiday season, one in three retailers expect minimal growth rates of between one and five percent, while 12 percent say they expect to see a decrease in sales over the holidays. An outlier to this sentiment: one in four retailers expect to see growth between six and ten percent this holiday season.
 
“For many middle market retail executives, the forecast for the coming holiday season and beyond is a wintry mix,” said Burt Feinberg, President, CIT Corporate Finance, Commercial & Industrial. “More than 60 percent say that high unemployment will continue to hurt sales, and 53 percent say overall economic uncertainty is having a dampening effect. Despite this, high-end luxury goods continue to sell well, while other consumers are choosing to trade down on their purchases.”
 
Interestingly, while 70 percent report that their own financial condition is healthy, 25 percent say they are reducing the schedules of existing employees to 30 hours or less, and 27% report that online and mobile business models are disrupting their business.
 
In addition, 61 percent say they see an uneven recovery developing that seems to be favoring wealthier consumers more than middle- and lower-income customers. In fact, while 50% of retailers say they are seeing increased demand for luxury goods among affluent shoppers, 45 percent say they are seeing middle class shoppers shift their preference from premium to lower-priced products.
 
 
The study, conducted in partnership between Forbes Insights and CIT Group Inc., included insight into the views and strategic plans of 208 senior, U.S.-based middle market ($25 million – $1 billion in annual sales) retail executives. The survey was conducted in October 2013.
 
In related news, GE Capital’s Commercial Distribution Finance (CDF) reported it expects RV sales to continue to grow steadily in 2014 following double-digit growth this year. 
“In spite of the country’s political gridlock, the improving economy helped the RV industry overall and contributed to double-digit growth for RV manufacturers,” said Tim Hyland, president of CDF’s RV group. “In spite of the country’s political gridlock, the improving economy helped the RV industry overall and contributed to double-digit growth for RV manufacturers. At the dealer level, inventory metrics are very healthy.”