Average holiday budgets this year are expected to decline by 10.2 percent to $1,133 per person, from $1,261 last year, as lower-income consumers offset spending hikes by affluent households, according to JLL’s 2025 U.S. Holiday Shopping Survey.

JLL said of the broader expected decline in holiday spend, “This pullback represents more than just belt-tightening. It signals a shift toward more thoughtful, strategic holiday spending. Consumers are no longer willing to stretch their finances for holiday excess, instead choosing to focus their limited resources on what truly brings joy during the season.”

The survey of 1,001 U.S. adults found that higher-income households earning over $150,000 are increasing their planned spending by 26 percent this year to $1,963, while lower-income households earning under $50,000 will severely cut back to just $699—a steep 24 percent decrease from $915 last year.

JLL said in the study, “This growing divide indicates a holiday season that’s increasingly bifurcated: budget-conscious and constrained among lower earners, but indulgent and experience-focused at the top. Affluent shoppers are expanding budgets across all categories (gifts, food & decor and experiences), essentially carrying overall holiday spending while other income groups pull back.”

Economic pressures were also cited by JLL to be driving consumers toward value-oriented, efficient shopping destinations over more premium retail experiences. Mass merchandisers are expected to capture 62.2 percent of consumers’ holiday shopping, reclaiming their position as the most popular shopping destination after experiencing a decline in popularity last year.

JLL said, “This resurgence reflects consumers’ demand for competitive pricing, extensive product selection, and convenient one-stop shopping experiences that mass merchandisers deliver effectively. While department stores maintain strong appeal at 50.4 percent of shoppers, their relative position has been weakened by this mass merchandiser revival.”

Bargain Hunting Becomes New Norm
The overwhelming majority (71 percent) of survey respondents prioritize retail stores offering low prices or sales above all other factors, while 60.6 percent are actively seeking more sales than usual, indicating that aggressive bargain hunting remains a key concern. The percentage of respondents planning to take advantage of deal days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday has increased to 46.4 percent, suggesting that these major shopping events remain important. While survey respondents plan to take advantage of deal days, nearly half (44.6 percent) also plan to look for deals throughout the holiday shopping season.

The study also found that a quarter of those surveyed plan to skip personal purchases entirely, a significant increase from just 17.3 percent last year. Spending on gifts for others remains virtually unchanged at $580 compared to $582 last year, while spending on experiences and food & decor is expected to see a pullback.

 

 

Dwell Time
JLL stated that one of the most striking findings in this year’s research is the significant impact of dwell time on driving holiday revenue. Consumers who stay longer spend more money — $1,416 on visits over 90 minutes, while those spending under 30 minutes spend $792.

“This trend reinforces that retailers and shopping centers must invest heavily in creating comfortable, engaging environments that encourage customers to linger,” JLL stated.

Other findings from the JLL survey include:

  • Just 16.3 percent of respondents plan to shop exclusively online, meaning over 83 percent will incorporate in-store shopping into their holiday planning in some capacity.
  • Nearly three-quarters plan to use multiple channels to complete their shopping, although enclosed mall shopping has declined to 49.9 percent from its previous high.
  • Nearly half (46 percent) of respondents plan to visit only three to five stores during the holiday shopping season. An additional 13.2 percent plan to visit only one to two stores, meaning nearly two-thirds will finish their holiday shopping with five or fewer retail stops. Only 23.7 percent plan to visit six to nine stores, while just 7.8 percent intend to visit 10 or more. JLL said, “This represents a clear preference for efficiency over exhaustive retail exploration, suggesting that the days of marathon shopping excursions are waning in favor of more targeted, purposeful retail visits.”
  • Nearly four in five (79 percent) surveyed respondents plan to turn to social media platforms for “inspiration and guidance.” Gen Z overwhelmingly favors TikTok, with 46.2 percent using it for video-based product showcases, while Millennials display more balanced usage across Facebook, Instagram and X. Among Boomers over 60, 57.9 percent avoid social media for holiday inspiration, although those who engage predominantly choose Facebook and Instagram.

Image courtesy Macy’s