New tariffs are putting pressure on international trade, with import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports expected to end 2025 5.6 percent below 2024 levels, according to the Global Port Tracker* report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”
The forecast comes as tariffs on dozens of countries worldwide were announced, postponed and then enacted after months of negotiations and deals began to take effect this week.
“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in June, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.7 percent from May but down 8.4 percent year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for July, but Global Port Tracker projected that the month surged to 2.3 million TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of this month’s tariffs. That would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3 percent from June and down just 0.5 percent year over year.
August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 5 percent year-over-year, and September at 1.83 million TEU, down 19.5 percent year-over-year. October is forecast at 1.82 million TEU, down 18.9 percent year-over-year, and November at 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1 percent, resulting in the lowest total since April 2023, at 1.78 million TEU. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEUs, down 19.3 percent year-over-year. While the falling aggregate totals from September through December are related to cargo being pulled forward during the first half of the year due to tariffs, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly due to imports in late 2024 being elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.6 percent year-over-year. Volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
