Retail sales are expected to grow 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent this holiday season, bringing the total expected spend more than $1.7 trillion, according to the ICSC’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Forecast report.
ICSC, formerly the International Council of Shopping Centers, also released the results of its annual Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey, which explores consumer expectations for the season. The survey found that 243 million consumers (91 percent) plan to shop for the holidays this year, an increase from last year.
“Despite economic concerns, our survey shows that consumers are committed to their holiday traditions and plan to shop,” said ICSC President and CEO, Tom McGee. “Our forecast reflects that resilience, but our data also signals a selective shopper, putting pressure on retailers to connect with shoppers in new ways and offer memorable shopping experiences that entice them to spend.”
Amid the uncertain economic environment, 65 percent of surveyed respondents agreed that it’s more important this year to celebrate holiday traditions. In line with this thinking, many cite that they are turning to activities and experiences. Respondents who plan to gift activities, such as movie and event tickets, increased by 5 percentage points to 21 percent year-over-year. One in three respondents also plans to spend more on experiences this holiday season compared to last year.
The survey found that 92 percent of respondents plan to spend in-store, with younger generations leading the way. Omnichannel shopping continues to grow in popularity, with 52 percent of respondents indicating they plan to take advantage of buy-online, pick-up-in-store options. Discount department stores (63 percent) and traditional department stores (29 percent) remain the most popular types of retailers where respondents plan to shop. In a sign of opportunity for emerging retailers, 80 percent of respondents are open to visiting new stores or trying new brands.
Gift cards remain the most popular gifting item this year for 64 percent of surveyed respondents who plan to purchase them, a 6-percentage point increase from 2024. Sixty-three percent of surveyed respondents agree that giving gift cards enables them to stay on budget, avoiding higher prices on individual items. Apparel (55 percent), toys and games (54 percent) and food and beverages (43 percent) rounded out the top categories respondents plan to spend their money this year.
Tariffs were noted as a significant factor shaping respondents’ attitudes and indicated that it would also impact where they shop. Seventy-one percent said they plan to be more selective when making holiday-related purchases due to perceived price increases resulting from tariffs; furthermore, 63 percent plan to avoid buying from retailers that significantly raise prices.
Surveyed respondents plan to use different ways to find lower prices this year, with 64 percent planning to spend more time looking for deals, and 67 percent who believe the search for discounts, or exclusive offers will encourage them to make more trips to purchase in-store. Thirty-two percent plan to use AI to assist with holiday shopping and gift ideas, an increase from 25 percent in 2024.
“It’s clear from our research that economic factors aren’t just shaping consumer sentiment – they’re directly impacting where and how consumers shop,” said McGee. “Convenience, competitive pricing, and attentive service are table stakes in this environment. Retailers that truly listen to consumer signals have ample opportunity to capture consumer dollars this season.”
The 2025 ICSC Holiday Intentions Survey was conducted online from September 24 to 26.
Images courtesy Gorsuch, St. Regis
