The ICSC\Goldman Sachs (ICSC\GS) chain store sales index for the week ending Dec. 22 rose by 0.7 percent from the prior week, which continued to reflect strength from last-minute shopping.



Although the ICSC\GS index is adjusted for calendar shifts, the unadjusted calendar comparison was unfavorable for in-store sales through Dec. 22, 2012, which are being compared with the week ending Dec. 24, 2011. This date difference negatively affected traffic comparisons with last year, but seemingly was more than offset by stronger spending (as a Gallup poll observed for the week). On the other hand, online holiday sales surged in the past week.


ComScore, Inc.reported that online vendors offering free shipping, if ordered early in the week, propelled sales by a whopping 53 percent for the workweek of Dec. 17-21, 2012 and accounted for $1.27 billion of extra holiday sales over the same period of 2011.


ComScore noted that “Free Shipping Day” (Monday, Dec. 17) alone caused sales to skyrocket by 76 percent ($1.01 billion) versus the same Monday of the prior year. Of course, calendar-comparison impacts for online sales inflated its reported strength for the current week. In the final week of December, in -store sales growth (unadjusted) is likely to be boosted by the calendar, which is why ICSC Research continues to hold to its expectations for the month.


Weather was generally unfavorable for retailers. According to Weather Trends, Inc. (WTI) the U.S. average nationwide temperature again was a modest 0.5 degrees warmer than last year, but a hefty 4.7 degrees above normal. WTI observed that during the past week ending Saturday that: The first winter storm of the season hit in the Central Plains bringing blizzard conditions from eastern Colorado and up through the Great Lakes. Store traffic will have been negatively impacted by the storm which occurred during the second half of the week. Gasoline prices edged lower during the week, but were generally a neutral factor.


U.S. comparable chain-store sales for November posted a below-plan performance of +1.7 percent as measured on a year-over-year basis by ICSC Research’s preliminary tally of major retail chain stores excluding the drug -store sector. The November sales performance was below plan for three reasons:

 


  • The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the first two weeks of the 4 -week fiscal month; 
  • The strong demand from online sales during the final week of the month, which will be booked in December’s fiscal month (when shipped); and 
  • The strength of lay -away purchases that also will be booked once the full -payment is made in December.

As such, sales have been shifted into December and ICSC Research expects that the December pace will accelerate to 4.0-4.5 percent (less drug stores), which will keep ICSC’s November -December season forecast of 3.0 percent on  track. Fiscal-month December 2012 sales largely will be reported on Thursday, Jan. 3, 2013.