The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is forecasting a 3.4 percent increase in sales for the traditional November-December holiday period, even though retailers are expecting a more modest spending season.
Additionally, ICSC anticipates that the other two measures of U.S. industry holiday sales-shopping-center inclined sales +3.4 percent, and chain-store sales +2.0-will both increase over last year. While the industry and the U.S. economy have gone through a mini-cycle slowdown the last three quarters, there are indicators of positive growth this season, despite retailer’s mixed outlook. Although consumers have faced some political and economic uncertainty -higher payroll taxes, concern about a federal government shutdown and lingering worries about the costs of the Affordable Care Act -this year’s outlook is better than last year’s.
“We’re going to see a more subdued spending mood from consumers, but what counts is that we’re on track to have a better holiday sales season that last year,” said Michael P. Niemira, vice president of research and chief economist for ICSC. “With leaner inventories, retailers can expect their prices and margins to remain stable, which is another good indicator of stronger sales.”
ICSC expects holiday hiring will be up 0.5 percent from last year.
ICSC represents more than 60,000 members in over 100 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials.
