Amid the impact of tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty, year-over-year declines in import cargo volume were witnessed at major container ports in the United States in recent months, and these declines are expected to continue in 2026, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”

The NRF said the Trump Administration had recently reduced tariffs on some food products, but the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act depends on a challenge currently before the Supreme Court.

“Even if the tariffs are struck down, the Administration is likely to seek to reinstate them under other trade authorities, the trade association argued.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the effect of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to end soon.

“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett suggested. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”

The developments come as the NRF forecasts record holiday sales of over $1 trillion for the first time, up between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent from 2024.

U.S. container ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.07 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in October, although the Port of Charleston has not yet reported its data. That figure was down 1.8 percent from September. and down 7.9 percent year-over-year.

U.S. ports have not yet reported November numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projected November at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.6 percent year-over-year. December is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 12.7 percent. Following July’s peak of 2.39 million TEUs, November and December would be the year’s slowest months. December would be the slowest month since June 2023, when 1.83 million TEUs were handled.

November and December are traditionally slow, but the large year-over-year declines are partly due to imports in late 2024 being elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual this year to avoid tariffs.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7 percent year-over-year. The full-year forecast is 25.2 million TEU, down 1.4 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Cargo is expected to see its first month-over-month increase in six months in January, forecast at 2 million TEU, but would still be down 10.3 per cent year-over-year. February is forecasted at 1.86 million TEUs, down 8.5 percent year-over-year; March at 1.79 million TEUs, down 16.8 percent, and April at 1.97 million TEUs, down 10.9 percent.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Image courtesy Port of Charleston