Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to see its first month-over-month gain in six months during January but is expected to remain down year-over-year until spring, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
Following “chronic uncertainty” from increased U.S. tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to remain affected by trade policy, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.
”U.S ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in November, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 2.3 percent from October and down 6.5 percent year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported December numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6 percent year-over-year. November and December are traditionally slow, but the year-over-year declines are partly due to imports in late 2024 being elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual in 2025 to avoid tariffs.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7 percent year-over-year. The full year is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
With a volume forecast of 2.11 million TEU, January is expected to mark the first month-over-month increase since last July, as retailers bring in merchandise ahead of February’s Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, but would still be down 5.3 percent year over year. February is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6 percent year over year; March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4 percent, and April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1 percent. May is forecast at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2 percent for the first year-over-year gain since last August.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston, TX on the Gulf Coast.
Image courtesy Port of Houston
