Several industry analysts expect VF Corp. to deliver third-quarter earnings in line with, or potentially ahead of, guidance when the company reports its Q3 financials this week. Cold weather is expected to have helped fuel a strong holiday quarter for VF. Corp. brands The North Face and Timberland; however, analysts remain skeptical whether the report will identify Vans’s recovery is gaining traction.

Overall, the quarter ended December 31 is expected to show a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues. On average, analysts expect earnings to reach 45 cents a share, down 27.4 percent from 62 cents a year ago. Revenues are expected to be $2.76 billion, down 2.6  percent from the year-ago quarter.

VF’s management’s guidance, delivered when it reported fiscal Q2 results on October 28, called for:

  • Sales to decline in the range of 3 percent to 1 percent on a currency-neutral basis year-over-year. Sales exclude the contribution in both periods from Dickies, which the company sold in mid-November 2025.
  • Adjusted operating income in the range of $275 million to $305 million, representing a decline in the range of 15.1 percent to 5.9 percent from $324 million in the same period a year ago.
  • Gross margin to be down versus last year, reflecting the initial impacts from tariffs, which are partially offset by lower discounts. VF officials said they have taken initial pricing actions to offset tariffs, but most of these will be reflected starting in fiscal Q4.
  • Reported SG&A dollars are expected to be slightly higher than last year but broadly flat on a constant-dollar basis.
  • Interest expense of approximately $40 million in the latest quarter, against $36.5 million a year ago.
  • Effective tax expense is approximately double the prior year’s level to be in line with recent results, due to changes in global tax rates and the geographical mix.

Shares of VF closed Friday, January 23, at $19.74, recovering a bit after hitting a low of $9.41 in April 2025 amid tariff concerns. Shares are about flat since Bracken Darrell took over as president and CEO of the company in July 2023.

Among more bullish analysts, Tom Nikic at Needham & Co., reiterated his “Buy” rating at a $25 price target in a January 22 note, largely on his belief that Vans finally “may be turning a corner.” He noted that VF’s management, at its presentation at the ICR Conference on January 13, indicated that Vans was finding success at “Tier Zero” or high-end streetwear accounts.

“We think this is important, because the last time a ‘Vans cycle’ occurred (calendar 2017), it was preceded by some high-profile fashion collabs (most notably the ‘Fear of God’ collaboration in October 2016), which caused brand heat to trickle down to the rest of Vans’ distribution,” wrote Nikic. “Today, we’re seeing a similar situation: high-end collaborations are selling out and selling for premiums in the resale market, fashion blogs are heaping praise upon the brand, and sneakerheads are even camping out for certain product launches.”

Needham’s team also sees increased online search activity for Vans, improved DTC sales-tracking data, and signs of strength at wholesale accounts, including Journeys. Nikic said, “All in all, it feels as though brand heat is re-accelerating, potentially setting the brand up for a return to growth this calendar year.”

Nikic further believes The North Face and Timberland delivered a “strong Holiday season,” due to persistent cold weather in the holiday quarter. Needham expects VF to earn 50 cents per share, above the consensus estimate of 45 cents.

Nikic said of his “Buy” rating, “We believe the company is on the road to recovery following one of the most challenging periods in the company’s history. We believe CEO Bracken Darrell is executing on a plan to improve the company’s efficiency/margins, drive brand heat (including a revitalization of Vans), and reduce debt leverage.”

Sam Poser, at Williams Trading, on January 21, raised his price target on VF to $14 from $10 to reflect better-than-anticipated strength for Timberland, The North Face and Altra. However, Poser expects third-quarter earnings of 38 cents, below consensus, due in large part to weakness at Vans. He sees Vans’ sales decline rate worsening versus the fiscal second quarter due to a lack of “compelling product” and the brand losing share among young males to Birkenstock, New Balance and Asics.

The analyst also reiterated his “Sell” rating on VF because he believes Vans is “showing no signs of a positive inflection,” Timberland’s momentum is “fleeting” as the brand is overly reliant on the iconic 6-inch boot, and he is skeptical that VF will be able to reach its 10 percent EBIT target for FY28. He also suspects that despite VF paying down debt with proceeds from the sale of Dickies, its remaining debt load will “cause VFC to put top line growth ahead of brand equity.”

He finally believes the lack of long-term guidance, no detailed growth plans revealed by brand and no indication for when VF’s China sales will inflect back to growth will also weigh on the stock.

Poser wrote, “We believe a detailed and realistic long-term plan must be provided to investors. We do not believe such a plan will be provided when 3Q26 earnings are released on January 28, 2026, BMO, but compel VFC to provide long-term details, as well as FY27 guidance when 4Q26 earnings are released in May at the latest.”

Paul Lejuez, at Citi Research, in a January 15 note, reiterated his “Neutral” rating on VF at a $14 price target. Lejuez is targeting VF’s earnings at 48 cents in the fiscal third quarter, slightly above consensus. He said the fact that VF did not pre-release results ahead of the ICR presentation “suggests they are at least on plan for 3Q.” However, he still believes Vans’ guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter will disappoint investors.

Lejuez said, “Although Vans faces significantly easier comparisons in 4Q (Vans sales were -9 percent in 3Q25 and -20 percent in 4Q25), we expect this conservative management team to guide only to a sequential improvement in 4Q rather than an inflection to growth.”

Lejuez expects Vans to again show sequential improvement in the fiscal 3Q, with sales down 8 percent, versus an 11 percent decline in the fiscal second quarter.

Lejuez also believes investors will be looking to see whether The North Face’s performance weakens amid more difficult comparisons after solid mid-single-digit gains in the first two quarters of its fiscal year. Citi expects The North Face’s sales to climb 2 percent on a currency-neutral basis, also citing the benefit of cold weather in the Americas.

The analyst also believes investors will be looking to hear more details on how VF plans to get to its 10 percent operating margin goal by FY28.

Lejuez said of Citi’s “Neutral” rating, “While we believe CEO Bracken Darrell is making strategic moves for the business, turnarounds are much more difficult to accomplish in challenging macro environments. In addition, while the company has significantly improved its balance sheet since selling Supreme and repaying debt, it is still relatively highly levered compared to others in the sector.”

At Stifel, Peter McGoldrick, in a January 21 note, reiterated his “Hold” rating at an $18 price target. He estimates VF will earn 40 cents a share, below estimates.

“Stable contribution from The North Face and Timberland in their most seasonally relevant period (67 percent of F3Q revenue) suggests estimates are within reach, though we believe another step forward in the earnings growth algorithm requires a structural improvement in the Vans brand, for which visibility is difficult,” said McGoldrick.

Regarding his “Hold” rating, McGoldrick said that given still elevated debt leverage, VF’s “risk/reward is magnified, and the range of outcomes remains wider than peers.” He also said VF trades at a “premium to lifestyle apparel peers, and we prefer names with better visibility to revenue growth, margin improvement, or room for multiple expansion.”

Image courtesy Vans