Stifel’s 2026 All-Star Footwear survey, which ranks the most popular shoes at U.S. athletic specialty and sporting goods retailers, revealed a Nike resurgence toward historical popularity levels at the expense of New Balance and Adidas; however, the increase was driven by strength in the discounted Nike Dunk model.
The survey also found several breakout styles selling well across major athletic brands.
Peter McGoldrick, Stifel’s lead analyst covering the athletic space, noted that the diversity of style popularity “remains more fragmented than in past footwear cycles,” with no single silhouette or style commanding dominance as historical hero products have. The pattern held across hoops classics, retro runners, contemporary running shoes, and terrace styles.
“All-Star 2026 showed a dearth of newness in the footwear space: Consumer attention is still clustering around multi-year franchises like the Nike Dunk, Vomero 5, Adidas Samba, and New Balance 9060, as well as Jordan Retro launches,” wrote McGoldrick. “While the industry is cycling some of the same silhouettes as opposed to creating the next hero product, we are seeing heightened fragmentation and inconsistent brand momentum in the channel.”
To assess trends, Stifel’s research team visited and/or called 110 stores, including Dick’s, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line/JD Sports, Champs Sports, and Hibbett Sports, to gather data on the popularity of athletic footwear styles for both boys and girls ahead of the NBA All-Star ’26 selling period, when several high-profile sneaker releases debuted.
Among brands, the big winners were from Nike, including Jordan and Converse, which were referenced in the most popular brands in 64.5 percent of checks, a gain of 12.7 percentage points year-over-year and 26.3 percentage points from Stifel’s back-to-school (BTS) survey from August 2025. BTS 2025 checks had represented an all-time low for Nike in Stifel’s survey.
McGoldrick said, “Nike remains the most popular brand at retail and the brand’s recent re-engagement with wholesale partners has widened the gap between second-place New Balance and third-place Adidas.”
While the recovery reflects improved traction with key partners like Dick’s, Foot Locker, and JD Sports/Finish Line, the gains were primarily driven by the Nike Dunk, which was widely discounted to $100 from a list price of $120. McGoldrick wrote, “We view discounting as a supply-dynamic as retailers right-size inventory levels (most notably Foot Locker under new ownership of Dick’s Sporting Goods), as opposed to consumers pushing back on prices.”
Athletic-specialty mall-based retailers, including Foot Locker, Champs Sports, and Finish Line/JD, showed the most significant shift in Nike brand mentions compared with recent surveys, with comparable declines in mentions for New Balance.
McGoldrick noted that Dick’s acquisition and subsequent clean-up of the Foot Locker banner “is driving a more promotional environment than normal.” On its third-quarter analyst call, Dick’s said it expected margin rates for the fourth quarter for Foot Locker to be down between 1,000 and 1,500 basis points due to aggressive efforts to clear “unproductive inventory.”
Other popular Nike styles in the Stifel’s 2026 All-Star Footwear Survey include the Vomero 5, called out as a popular style in 36 percent of store checks; Jordan (Brand), 33 percent; Nike Air Force 1, 18 percent; and Nike Air Max 270, 15 percent.
In a separate note, McGoldrick reiterated his “Hold” rating on Nike at a $65.00. McGoldrick said the survey showed that Nike Dunk, Air Force 1 and Retro Jordan 1 “remain credible alternatives” despite Nike’s efforts to de-emphasize the classic franchises since calendar year 2024, and the brand’s overall strength “encourages greater confidence” in Nike’s recovery. However, he is waiting for the strength in newer models to become more constructive on Nike’s shares.
McGoldrick wrote, “We look for resonating newness as the core indicator of recapturing the prior growth model: We continue to view Nike’s strategy to focus on performance sports, segment the marketplace, and re-engage wholesale distribution favorably. The survey shows favorable response to some of the high-heat Jordan releases around NBA All-Star Weekend, such as the Retro 6 Infrared and Retro 4 Valentine’s Day but did not include new performance dimensions.”
Among other athletic footwear brands in the footwear survey, New Balance styles were the second most popular, cited in 17.7 percent of checks, down 6.4 percentage points year-over-year and 13.2 percentage points from BTS 2025 checks. Stifel found that New Balance remains the “best-positioned brand for the retro running trend,” with mentions of popularity across multiple styles, including the 9060, 740, 1906, and 2002R.
However, McGoldrick believes that fewer mentions of the 9060 as a popular style could signal “a signal of brand stagnation.” When asked specifically about styles, the 9060 was mentioned in 23 percent of All-Star ’26 checks, down from a peak of 35 percent in BTS ’25 checks. Among other popular New Balance styles, the 2002R was cited in 11 percent of checks, up from 6 percent in BTS 2025, but the 740 declined to 6 percent mentions, down sequentially from 12 percent, and the 1906 fell to 4 percent mentions from 22 percent in BTS 2025.
Adidas came in third, referenced as a popular brand across styles in 8.9 percent of Stifel’s checked stores for All Star 2026, down 3.0 percentage points year over year and 13.4 percentage points sequentially from BTS 2025. Continued popularity of the Samba is driving the Adidas brand’s relevance, although the Samba was cited as a popular style in 25 percent of checks in the latest survey, down from 46 percent in BTS 2025 and 35 percent in the All Star 2025 survey.
McGoldrick wrote, “The Adidas Terrace style craze appears to be past-peak: Adidas Terrace styles, which we define as the Samba, Spezial, Gazelle, and Campus styles, are less popular than they were a year ago. While we were early in calling a peak to this trend last year, the y/y declines in the Samba suggest Adidas must drive consumer interest with a different aesthetic in future periods.”
Among “challenger brands,” most have yet to achieve sufficient scale in these high-volume channels,” noted McGoldrick in the report.
On Running, however, was seen gaining some traction, referenced as the most popular brand in 5.5 percent of Stifel’s checks, increasing from 3.6 percent in the prior year and 2.5 percent in its BTS 2025 checks. Stifel noted that On is carried at a fraction of the number of Dick’s, Foot Locker, Finish Line/JD, and Hibbett physical stores, and is not sold through Champs or Academy.
McGoldrick wrote about On, “We believe the variance in most popular references reflects the measured pace of introduction into surveyed channels and not a reflection of brand momentum, which continues to outpace the overall footwear market.”
Asics was referenced as the most popular brand in 1.6 percent of checks compared to 3.2 percent in the prior year and 2.5 percent in BTS 2025 checks. Stifel said Asics style mentions were “led by slightly favorable trends towards retro tech styles for which Asics has strong heritage and mentions for the Gel 1130.”
Hoka was referenced as the most popular brand in 0.9 percent of checks compared to 1.7 percent in Stiefel’s All Star 2025 survey and 1.8 percent in BTS 2025 checks. McGoldrick said, “The brand is strategically investing to recruit younger consumers to the brand but also balancing the level of penetration in these tracked retailers, not yet sold through Academy, only available in select Dick’s, Foot Locker, JD/Finish Line, Hibbett, and Champs doors.”
Vans was not referenced as a popular brand at all in the latest survey, compared with 1.8 percent in the All Star 2025 checks and 0.5 percent in the BTS 2025 survey. McGoldrick noted that the survey focuses on athletic specialty and sporting goods channels, which are not core to the Vans business.
Image courtesy Adidas (Samba)
