Charging that “reports of the sneaker’s death have been greatly exaggerated,” Peter McGoldrick, Stifel’s lead analyst covering the athletics space, issued a report predicting the global athletic footwear category has the capacity to expand at an average annual rate of 4 percent over at least the next five years due in large part to the “durability” of the sneaker market.
The potential growth rate is similar to historical norms seen for several decades prior to the pandemic on a global basis due to longstanding underlying drivers of casualization and health & wellness. McGoldrick argues that those drivers are still in place, with strong innovation from both established and newer brands also serving as another catalyst for growth.
With CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in the range of 4 percent to 5 percent, Stifel sees the global athletic footwear industry having the potential to add $42.1 billion in sales to reach $239 billion worldwide by 2030. McGoldrick wrote, “Athletic footwear continues to grow despite challenges with leaders,” referencing most notably Nike’s recent struggles.
Of the potential $42.1 billion in additional sales, international is expected to contribute $32.2 billion, or 76.5 percent, the incremental spend. Stifel’s study noted that athletic remains “underpenetrated” overseas, making up 41 percent of international footwear spending versus 57 percent in North America. Continuing rebalances towards U.S.’s sneaker usage rates “represents a structural lift to the growth rate,” according to McGoldrick.
Athletic footwear in international markets is projected to expand at a 4.4 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) basis from 2025 to 2030. In North America, athletic footwear is expected to expand at a solid 3 percent CAGR over the next five years, adding $10 billion in sales.
Stifel’s findings comes as a few reports have arrived this year predicting a slow-down in sneaker sales.
Increased Skepticism Over Sneaker’s Growth Rate
Analysts at Bank of America caught widespread attention in early January for predicting that a 20-year trend of “casualization” of fashion—accelerated by pandemic work-from-home habits—has reached its structural peak. The analysts said that with this structural shift largely complete, future revenue growth prospects for athletic footwear brands were now significantly reduced.
Among others, Heuritech, the Paris-based AI trend forecasting platform, predicted a decline in sneaker sales in both Europe and the U.S. in 2026 based on analysis of social media mentions. Analysts at BNP Paribas also predicted a “return to dress,” after a long trend toward athleisure and more casual offerings pre- and post-pandemic.
In his report, McGoldrick offered a strong defense that the sneaker category would at least maintain its pre-pandemic growth rate of the low-single to mid-single digits against the increased chatter that the sneaker boom is cooling.
“The sneaker’s obituary writers have been wrong at every cycle since Run-DMC laced up their Superstars in Madison Square Garden in 1986,” wrote McGoldrick in the report.
He notes that while the results of 15 leaders in the athletics and footwear space show industry profits during the pandemic indeed peaked in 2021 as people embraced outdoors and active lifestyles, consensus estimates of those same companies show industry profits will surpass 2021 levels by calendar 2027. Excluding Nike, results were within one percentage point by 2025. McGoldrick summed up, “Calling a sneaker peak is a counter-consensus viewpoint.”
McGoldrick also noted that while the sharp drop in average sneaker resale prices on platforms like StockX and Goat has been seen by some as a sign of weakening sneaker demand, a major factor in the softening of resale prices has been the termination of Adidas’ Yeezy partnership in 2022. He also noted that imbalances created by Nike’s initial reliance on key hoop franchises (Dunk, Air Force 1, and Jordan 1) to drive growth distorted “supply/demand dynamics for price premiums.”
Finally, he noted that Nike’s subsequent decision to rationalize those franchise inventories led to an $8 billion shift in athletic footwear market share, which challenger brands and upstarts continue to capitalize on. McGoldrick wrote, “A reshaped market structure has shifted the profit pool towards higher-priced brands carrying stronger margins.”
Secular Drivers to Athletic Footwear’s Growth
Meanwhile, McGoldrick cited four underlying secular trends supporting growth as “strong as ever.”
The drivers include:
- “Health & wellness focus among growing audiences of runners, gym members, and other exercise and athletic-oriented consumers supports frequency of purchase growth.”
- “Brand proliferation drives greater innovation, marketing intensity, cultural relevance, and pricing power at the top of the assortment.”
- “Global market expansion points to expanding share of athletic footwear in markets like China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, as these regions follow a predictable sneaker adoption pattern of more mature markets in North America and Western Europe.”
Stifel sees On and Hoka as the leading share gainers over the next five years.
Stifel sees On expanding at a 19.1 percent CAGR over the next five years, increasing share by 270 basis points to 5.4 percent of the global athletic footwear market by 2030. McGoldrick said at that pace, On would land among the top five global athletic footwear brands “in just 20 years of existence.”
Hoka is expected to grow at a 12.1 percent CAGR from 2025 to 2030, expanding its global market share in athletic footwear by 170 basis points to 2.9 percent.
Among other brands, strong growth (and share gains) is predicted from 2025 to 2030 for Asics, with a projected CAGR of 11.1 percent; New Balance, 9.0 percent; and Brooks, 7.6 percent. Skechers is expected to expand its athletics business at a 7.7 percent five-year CAGR, and Jordan is projected to expand at 6.1 percent on average over the next five years.
Brands expected to see slower growth (and lose athletic footwear share) include Nike Brand, projected to expand in a 3 percent CAGR from 2025 to 2030; Adidas, 4.3 percent; and Puma, 2.2 percent.
Image courtesy On
