Vendors, retailers and trade association leaders in the outdoor space expect cautious buying stances from outdoor retailers to continue in 2026 amid trade and economic uncertainty, but still see outdoor enthusiasts prioritizing innovation, durability, sustainability, and outdoor adventures.
This is the final installment in a series of articles from SGB Media exploring the industry’s outlook for 2026, with the first focused on the perspective of Wall Street analysts and advisors, the second on footwear execs, and the third on execs in the sports and fitness space. Read responses from other outdoor market leaders in Part 1 of this article at the bottom of this page.
Gabe Maier
President, Grassroots Outdoor Alliance
“Rounding out the end of 2025, outdoor specialty retail is in a healthier position than many anticipated. Grassroots retailers are up 2.36 percent YTD through November, a meaningful shift from 2024 when nearly 65 percent of our members were tracking down compared to 37 percent this year. Inventory levels have continued to improve for retailers and brands, and many of the worst fears surrounding consumer behavior after tariff announcements have not yet materialized.
“Looking Ahead to 2026: Margin compression remains a primary challenge. Many brands absorbed a portion of tariff costs, which will create additional margin pressure this year, adding to the compression that has occurred post-pandemic for retailers, brands, and reps alike.
“Category trends persist. Lifestyle sportswear, running footwear, and lifestyle outerwear will likely keep driving growth, while bike, paddle, and auto/roof racks will remain soft.
“Used gear continues momentum. Already meaningful for 25 percent of our members, we expect more retailers to build out resale as a revenue stream and community touchpoint.
“Ownership transitions accelerate. Roughly 20 percent of our membership has transitioned ownership in the past five years, a trend we expect to continue as first and second-generation owners near retirement.
“For specialty retailers to win in 2026, it’s about continuing to be intentional with where energy goes and remembering that it’s not who you serve, it’s how you serve them.”
Sophia Ou
Co-Founder, LifeLabs
“In 2026, we are focused on redefining leadership in material science. As a female-led company, we’ll continue to bring a fresh perspective to the textile industry, establishing LifeLabs as a premier innovation partner for brands. We are committed to making our flagship WarmLife and CoolLife technologies the gold standard for innovation through rigorous real-world testing, which provides critical validation of the scientific research conducted at Stanford University. We enter the new year ready to empower our partners with science-backed solutions proven to perform.”
Dani Pearce
Founder & CEO, Merry People
“The results of retail spending in Q3 show an increase from the previous quarter, along with year-on-year growth. Holiday trade is also expected to have growth from the previous year.
“All positive signs that point to 2026 being a year that has potential for retail growth.
“For us, we feel we have some more stability in our unit economics and more confidence to invest in our growth, namely through people, trade shows, and marketing. We have traded well throughout the year despite having to increase our prices, and we also expect to exceed our budgets in Q4 (despite never going on sale and not participating in any Black Friday sales, etc.).
“Weather will continue to be a threat for our type of product — the new changes in seasons and extreme weather conditions. I think there are opportunities for seasonal or weather-based businesses like ours to look for ways to add more flexibility to their supply chains and allow more flexibility, particularly in the shoulder season going into your peak. How do you cap your risk but also allow you to participate in upside demand?
“For mid-tier brands (like us) or higher-end brands, I think investing in brand will be critical for the long-term sustainability and ultimate success. In Australia, we have 50 percent of our sales through word of mouth, which is not only a wonderful validation that our customers like our product enough to tell others about it. It also supports our unit economics to have less reliance on paid acquisition (and for me feels a more long-term sustainable way of operating). Our goals in the U.S. are to work towards this.”
Eleanore Pitney
Co-Founder, Soča
“As a young company launched in 2025, we are navigating a landscape shaped by consumer uncertainty around tariffs and inflation. Looking ahead to 2026, we see both key opportunities and real challenges.
“We’re excited to see the continued growth of women’s participation in outdoor activities, especially as fly fishing stands out as a strong and promising market. More women are seeking experiences that blend adventure, wellness and a deeper connection to nature — trends that are driving increased demand for women’s fly fishing apparel and accessories. As anglers ourselves, we identified a clear gap in the market for high-quality fly fishing apparel designed specifically for women. While this gap has historically posed challenges, it also represents a significant opportunity. Soča’s mission is to empower women through apparel that builds confidence and fosters greater inclusivity and diversity in a sport that remains largely male-dominated.
“Our primary challenges stem from inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty, which continue to influence consumer behavior. Even so, Soča remains firmly rooted in a commitment to quality and community — values that resonate strongly with our customers and position us well for long-term growth.”
Andrew Rademacher
CEO & Founder, Lems Shoes
“In the footwear industry, we see 2026 as a year of resurgence. Brands that struggled with tariffs in early 2025 have largely adapted, creating more stable supply chains and pricing strategies that set the stage for renewed growth. Consumer confidence also appears to be rebounding, which should translate into more intentional footwear purchases as shoppers look for products that deliver long-term value, comfort, and versatility.
“Within the outdoor industry, we see specialty retailers reinvesting in their businesses by testing emerging, younger brands that bring genuine innovation to the category. For Lems, we’re excited by this, which is why we are heavily investing this year with our independent retailers. As these partners look to stand out in a crowded market, we believe brands with unique offerings and proven consumer demand will continue to gain traction.
“We also expect sustainability to continue playing a meaningful role in consumer decision-making. At Lems, we’re focused on strengthening our sustainability efforts by exploring greater use of recyclable materials across our product line and beyond. This includes our new partnership with The Conservation Alliance. As a footwear company whose products are used in the wild, we recognize our responsibility to minimize our impact and share our customers’ respect for the environments they explore.”
Karl Salz
President, Sun & Ski Sports
“As we look toward 2026, we’re entering the year with greater confidence than we had a year ago. Improved performance in 2025 was driven by a more disciplined approach to the business, including sharper marketing informed by a better understanding of our customer, healthier margins supported by a more balanced mix of branded and proprietary product, and tighter inventory management.
“While the broader outdoor retail environment remains competitive, many of the structural changes affecting the industry have begun to stabilize. That said, weather continues to be a key variable. A warmer start and lower snow coverage at many ski resorts this season underscore the importance of remaining nimble across categories and diversified geographically.
“Looking ahead, we see continued opportunity through ongoing refinement of the customer experience, more disciplined merchandising and marketing execution, and incremental margin improvement. Recent technology investments are beginning to deliver returns by improving operational efficiency and supporting a more seamless customer journey. While we remain mindful of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, early signs of stabilization are encouraging and should help support discretionary spending in outdoor recreation. Overall, we believe the business is well- positioned to build on recent momentum as we move into 2026 with measured optimism.”
Nick Sargent
President, Snowsports Industry Association (SIA)
“As we look ahead, clarity around tariffs remains a priority for the winter outdoor industry. A more defined trade environment will allow companies to plan with confidence and make informed business decisions.
“Sustainability regulations are also expanding globally, requiring increased attention and resources. While compliance presents challenges, it also creates opportunities. From digital product passports and circularity initiatives to new packaging solutions, these frameworks can drive meaningful innovation across the industry.
“Participation remains a critical focus. The demographic makeup of the U.S. continues to evolve, and the winter sports industry must evolve with it. SIA data shows Hispanic participants are playing an increasingly important role in sustaining participation, particularly as traditional white participation in alpine skiing and snowboarding declines. Embracing these shifts is essential to long-term vitality.
“Climate change also remains top of mind, with increasingly unpredictable winters underscoring the need for collaboration. Working together to address climate impacts and help members navigate climate volatility is essential.”
Mike Seaman
Group CEO, Raccoon Media Group, Owner of ISPO
“Looking ahead in 2026, the sports and outdoor industry will continue to evolve rapidly, with brands and retailers seeking smarter ways to connect, innovate and respond to shifting markets. Meeting face-to-face will be mission-critical and having a holistic view will be crucial to navigating the challenges the industry faces.
“ISPO plays a crucial role in this environment, providing a global platform that brings the industry together to discuss core issues, including participation, trade and sustainability, connecting brands and retailers, and serving both upstream and downstream markets. By enabling these connections and insights, ISPO helps companies navigate change and drive sustainable growth in a more complex and competitive market.”
John Sears
General Manager, Gregory Mountain Products
“Consumers’ desire to spend time outside will remain strong in 2026. They will, however, remain more selective and prioritize innovation and quality from brands they trust, especially at higher price points. With tariff-driven price increases fully rolled out in 2026, I anticipate some mix shift to lower price points for certain consumer groups, but well-designed, durable gear that enhances outdoor and travel experiences will continue to resonate. This is especially true for products that work well on the trail and transition seamlessly into everyday use and travel, as the industry continues to experience momentum in the convergence of technical performance and everyday versatility.
“So, segmentation and messaging will be one key to success, given some consumers will be seeking affordability while others will double down on trusted, premium gear. For Gregory, this fits right into our wheelhouse, and we continue to see our premium and entry-level price-point products perform well due to their high value proposition, product versatility, and long-term brand trust. So, despite the uncertainty of tariff-induced price elasticity and some static within pockets of the wholesale channel, I’m optimistic 2026 will be another strong growth year for brands that can adapt to the new environment. For Gregory, this strategy delivered strong growth in 2025, and we see that momentum carrying into 2026.”
Lance Taylor
U.S. General Manager, Lowa
“The overall outlook on the industry is positive for 2026. Most of the industry had concerns about tariffs and price increases impacting consumer behavior in a significant way in 2025. I was one of them. However, the impact looks to be much less than we originally anticipated.
Many of our retail partners have reported positive YoY comparisons in the footwear categories Lowa specializes in, such as Hike and Trail Run. Lowa looks to be over-indexing the category averages as well. Retailers have had a much more optimistic and energetic perspective at trade shows in 2025, which is great to see after navigating crisis after crisis for the past few years.
“We have optimism for 2026 based on our order book position for the year and the healthy Lowa inventory levels with our retail partners. Lowa has expanded our consumer target as well. We will continue to innovate within the traditional outdoor consumer segment, where we are well known. We also have some great products in the pipeline for the more modern and athletic outdoor consumers as well, and they are being received quite well by the market. We see these actions further cementing Lowa as a foundational brand to our specialty partners.”
Mike Welch
SVP, Global Sales and Marketing, Nemo Equipment
“At Nemo, we’re optimistic about 2026. We saw firsthand, with our retail partners, during the back half of 2025, that consumers are paying full price for products that feel genuinely new and clearly improve the outdoor experience. Interest in camping and backpacking remains strong, but shoppers are being more thoughtful and selective.
“For retailers, the opportunity is with brands that bring strong values, meaningful innovation and clear storytelling to the floor. When products solve real problems and are supported with staff education and merchandising, we’re seeing healthy sell-through and high margins. That’s been especially true for technical categories where design, performance and sustainability matter.
While uncertainty around costs and the broader economy remains, retailers who buy with intention and partner closely with brands that support them in-market are best positioned for success. The outdoor customer is still engaged and ready to invest; we just need to earn the purchase.”
Peter Whitcomb
CEO, Tersus Solutions
“As 2026 approaches, we are seeing the apparel and footwear industries, especially within the outdoor and active spaces, seeking more pragmatic and financially viable ways to deliver post-consumer sustainability. Plans where circularity, recommerce, and product longevity move from ambition to infrastructure.
“With increasingly informed and eco-conscious consumers, we believe solutions that extend product life, safely clean and decontaminate gear, and provide repair and warranty support for branded products will be essential to scaling circularity. With expanded investment and scale, Tersus looks forward to delivering solutions that help brands turn returns, end-of-life products and mission-critical PPE into profitable businesses that generate environmental value rather than waste.”
Lead image courtesy Nemo Equipment and Natives Outdoors
See below for the first part of this article with 2026 Look Ahead discussions with outdoor market leaders:
